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2015 Archive

Richard Daughty & Chris Waltzek - July 23, 2014.

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Summary:

  • Richard Daughty, AKA "The Mogambo Guru," returns to the show with comments on the impending Fed rate hikes.
  • Officials have borrowed far beyond their means, putting their constituents on the line in similar fashion as every other defunct government in economic history.
  • Not once in recorded history has any society escaped the clutches of a fiat paper system without facing severe financial consequences.
  • With nearly half of investors wealth tied to the US stock market, officials have a vested interest in holding prices artificially high.
  • The lack of transparency is becoming intense, financial opaqueness is the new standard practice.
  • The Mogambo has not ruled out divine intervention, yet he's hesitant to stake the household nest egg on it.
  • The duo compare the financial mess to the fateful last voyage of the RMS Titanic
  • Overconfidence has resulted with too few life boats for over 300 million Americans.
  • Savvy investors have learned the lesson of history, by adding precious metals investments to their portfolios, no financial iceberg is large enough to breach the portfolio hull.
  • The portability of precious metals further enhances the life preserver-like qualities.

Richard Daughty, AKA "The Mogambo Guru," returns to the show with comments on the impending Fed rate hikes. Officials have borrowed far beyond their means, putting their constituents on the line in similar fashion as every other defunct government in economic history. Not once in recorded history has any society escaped the clutches of a fiat paper system without facing severe financial consequences. With nearly half of investors wealth tied to the US stock market, officials have a vested interest in holding prices artificially high. His work indicates that huge amounts of capital is swept from the domestic banking system after business hours, directed to the bond market to maintain the status quo. But the lack of transparency is becoming intense, financial opaqueness is the new standard practice. The Mogambo has not ruled out divine intervention, yet he's hesitant to stake the household nest egg on it. The duo compare the financial mess to the fateful last voyage of the RMS Titanic - overconfidence has resulted with too few life boats for over 300 million Americans. Nonetheless, savvy investors have learned the lesson of history, by adding precious metals investments to their portfolios, no financial iceberg is large enough to breach the portfolio hull. The portability of precious metals further enhances the life preserver-like qualities.

John Embry & Chris Waltzek - July 21, 2015.

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Abstract:

  • John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, returns to the program with his thoughts on the precious metals sector.
  • The duo caution investors from parking too many investment portfolio eggs in paper assets, stocks / bonds given the abrupt rout in the Shanghai index
  • Conversely, the pullback in the precious metals sector is presenting a golden opportunity to procure value via dollar cost averaging.
  • Given the current mega-discounted prices, gold and silver producers are trading at a fraction of the price of their underlying metals.
  • Our guest notes the Greek nation is bankrupt, but EU economic ministers are constrained from stringent practices, because an exit could damage credibility, sending the dominos falling among other debt laden peripheral members.
  • The guest and host concur that the onus of responsibility for debt repayment falls squarely on the shoulders of the lender.
  • Nevertheless, the easy money carrot is still dangling, as the potential profits are too enticing for some to resist.
  • A mini-case study of Greece vs. Iceland involves the 2008 credit crisis.
  • Iceland emerged in far better economic shape.
  • By managing lenders and focusing on the rights of individuals, unemployment and GDP, economic order quickly revived, relative to Greece, where officials chose to ignore the Icelandic success story (Figures 1.1. - 1.3.).
  • The Icelandic tale resembles a modern economic version of David vs. Goliath.

 

John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, returns to the program with his thoughts on the precious metals sector. The duo caution investors from parking too many investment portfolio eggs in paper assets, stocks / bonds given the abrupt rout in the Shanghai index shares, where a 30% decline occurred in only 3 weeks, illustrating how fast paper profits can evaporate. Conversely, the pullback in the precious metals sector is presenting a golden opportunity to procure value via dollar cost averaging. Given the current mega-discounted prices, gold and silver producers are trading at a fraction of the price of their underlying metals. Our guest notes the Greek nation is bankrupt, but EU economic ministers are constrained from stringent practices, because an exit could damage credibility, sending the dominos falling among other debt laden peripheral members. The guest and host concur that the onus of responsibility for debt repayment falls squarely on the shoulders of the lender, but due in part to collateralization, the risk exposure was transferred away from the lenders, distributed among investors with little inside knowledge of the true default risk. The traditional lending system, where local lenders went to school / temple / church, etc. with the borrowers, was replaced with collateralization where debts are packaged, into CDS and MBS, tranched, sliced / diced to hypothetically contain risk. Nevertheless, the easy money carrot is still dangling, as the potential profits are too enticing for some to resist. A mini-case study of Greece vs. Iceland involves the 2008 credit crisis. Clearly, Iceland emerged in far better economic shape - by dealing with unfair lenders and focusing on the rights of individuals, unemployment and GDP, economic order quickly revived, relative to Greece, where officials chose to ignore the Icelandic success story (Figures 1.1. - 1.3.). The Icelandic tale resembles a modern economic version of David vs. Goliath - with virtually no political / military clout, less than 1 million people defeated a foe many times in number. Please click the images for a larger, closer view.

Figure 1.1. A Tale of Two Debtors: Greece vs. Iceland

Note: Graph courtesy of Google images.

 

Figure 1.2. Greece vs. Iceland: Unemployment

Note: Graph courtesy of Google images.

 

Figure 1.3. Greece vs. Iceland: National Economic Output - GDP

Note: Graph courtesy of Google images.

 

 

 

Arch Crawford & Chris Waltzek - July 16, 2015.

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Show Recap.:

  • Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, is sticking with his dire prognostication for the rest of 2015.
  • The stock market could face severe consequences, amid market manipulation.
  • The M2 money supply velocity figure has collapsed to the lowest level on record, since first tabulated in 1959, suggesting that the trillions in Fed debt purchases has done little to stimulate economic output.
  • Institutions are simply parking cash in less risky investments amid severe market manipulation (Figure 1.1.).
  • Given the ominous "death cross" seen in the non-confirmation of the transports sector relative to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrials.
  • Arch says the market top is in place and no new highs are likely.
  • His prediction is dire, modern civilization hangs in the balance as a Kondratiev Winter-like scenario leads to the end of most financial markets.
  • At the root of the systematic problem is the fractional banking system, which prints money into existence at will with limited to zero oversight.
  • Nevertheless, cooler heads may prevail - the host shares his market ontology, coining the pun, "blog-o-fear," a play on blog-o-sphere, as fear sells and far too many pundits are making bearish calls.
  • Most market peaks are accompanied by euphoria and or complacency.

 

Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, is sticking with his dire prognostication for the rest of 2015 - the stock market could face severe consequences, amid market manipulation. His work indicates startling parallels between the current global equities markets and the 2008 credit crisis deluge. The M2 money supply velocity figure has collapsed to the lowest level on record, since first tabulated in 1959, suggesting that the trillions in Fed debt purchases has done little to stimulate economic output. Institutions are simply parking cash in less risky investments amid severe market manipulation (Figure 1.1.).

Figure 1.1. Velocity of M2 Money Supply

Note: Graph courtesy of St. Louis Fed webpage.

Given the ominous "death cross" seen in the non-confirmation of the transports sector relative to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrials, Arch says the market top is in place and no new highs are likely. His ominous outlook includes the end of modern civilization, as a Kondratiev Winter scenario leads to the end of most financial markets. At the root of the systematic problem is the fractional banking system, which prints money into existence at will, with limited oversight. Nevertheless, cooler heads may prevail - the host shares his market ontology, coining the pun, "blog-o-fear," a play on blog-o-sphere, as fear sells and far too many pundits have donned bear suits; most market peaks are accompanied by euphoria and or complacency.

 

Catherine Austin Fitts & Chris Waltzek - July 14, 2015.

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Interview Recap.

  • Catherine Austin Fitts, former Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing Commissioner and president of Solari, Inc., publisher of the Solari Report, returns to the show.
  • She's concerned by the crumbling US infrastructure and lack of constructive efforts to rectify the situation.
  • Whereas, China continues to pour funds into its infrastructure On a trip to China she discovered that 80% of the legislature is written by economists / engineers, while 90% of US legislation is dictated by attorneys.
  • Investment in infrastructure will determine if the bifurcated economy unites as a viable competitive engine.
  • The former Wall Street maven says US stocks are overdue for a correction.
  • The US dollar rally, fomented by the Fed rate hike policies, could jeopardize the global equity market advance.

Catherine Austin Fitts, former Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing Commissioner and president of Solari, Inc., Publisher of the Solari Report, returns to the show. She's concerned by the crumbling US infrastructure and lack of constructive efforts to rectify the situation. Whereas, China continues to pour funds into its infrastructure On a trip to China she discovered that 80% of the legislature is written by economists / engineers, while 90% of US legislation is dictated by attorneys. Our guest is convinced that investment in infrastructure will determine if the bifurcated economy unites as a viable competitive engine. The former Wall Street maven says US stocks are overdue for a correction, supporting and echoing the sentiments of virtually all recent guests. The US dollar rally, fomented by the Fed rate hike policies, could jeopardize the global equity market rally.

 

CEO & President Christopher Jones & Chris Waltzek - July 9, 2015.

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Interview Recap.

  • CEO & President Christopher Jones of Uranium Resources (URRE) makes his debut appearance.

  • His track record of success spans 30 years and several companies including silver / copper mines, an oil sands operation and a coal company, culminating with the latest project, Uranium Resources (URRE).

  • One of CEO Christopher Jones' strengths includes a penchant for identifying companies with "great bones, potential and stories" then joining the management team, and transforming the diamond in the rough into a polished gem stone.

  • Uranium Resources is on track to become, "... a low cost producer able to produce in any conceivable market."

  • Our guest expects uranium prices to soar in the coming years, well above $40 a pound making operations highly profitable.

  • The Butler Ranch Project initial drill results from earlier this year and the data acquisition will facilitate resource confirmation drilling on the leases.

  • The discounted data acquisition cost ($150,000) resulted in a windfall 1.2 million pounds of resources, about one dime per pound.

  • Once the data arrives and is modeled, operations could commence as soon as 2018.

  • Two "ready to operate facilities" near Corpus Christi, Texas are each capable of 800,000 lbs. of production.

  • The Anatolia project has a remarkable IRR of 65%.

  • By moving the Rosita facility in Texas to Turkey, the $11 million in cost savings will boost the NPV / IRR, offering a competitive advantage to the benefit of the stockholders.

  • The Church Rock project and related properties include 200,000 acres in New Mexico near Albuquerque as well as Gallup, New Mexico.

  • The Anatolia equity listing in Australia will be maintained, enhancing investment related geographical-diversification.

Goldseek's President and mining company expert, Peter Spina has identified another exciting opportunity: Uranium Resources. CEO & President Christopher Jones makes his debut appearance. His track record of success spans 30 years and several operations including silver / copper mines, an oil sands operation and a coal company, culminating with the latest project, Uranium Resources (URRE). One of CEO Christopher Jones' talents includes identifying prospects with "great bones, potential and stories" and then joining the management team, transforming a diamond in the rough into a polished gem stone. Uranium Resources is on track to become "... a low cost producer able to produce in any conceivable market." Our guest expects uranium prices to soar in the coming years, well above $40 a pound facilitating profitable operations. The Butler Ranch Project initial drill results from earlier this year and the data acquisition will facilitate resource confirmation drilling on the leases. The discounted data acquisition of $150,000 resulted in a windfall of 1.2 million pounds of resources, at a bargain cost of one dime per pound. Once the data arrives and is modeled, operations could commence as soon as 2018. Two "ready to operate facilities" near Corpus Christi, Texas are each capable of 800,000 lbs. Of production. In addition, the Church Rock Project and related properties are comprised of 200,000 acres in New Mexico near Albuquerque as well as in Gallup, New Mexico. The Anatolia project has a remarkable IRR of 65%. The acquisition involves moving the Rosita facility in Texas to Turkey, en passant saving $11 million, boosting the NPV / IRR and yielding a competitive advantage to the benefit of stockholders. Furthermore, the Anatolia equity listing in Australia will be maintained, increasing share diversification qualities.

 

Harry S. Dent Jr. & Chris Waltzek - July 9, 2015.

 

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Summary:

  • Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., returns with comments on the latest Grexit drama, noting a default is imminent.
  • A bankruptcy will benefit the nation as forced fiscal responsibility curtails government profligacy.
  • The only country to effectively ameliorate the debt problem is Iceland, which defaulted on foreign debt shielding constituents from predatory lending practices.
  • The Icelandic economy has emerged from the malaise intact and better prepared to thrive in an increasingly complex / competitive global-economic landscape.
  • Their remarkable saga is an ideal precedent / case study / blue print for officials in the BRICS nations as well as the US / EU / Japan.
  • Given that the EU has never faced a financial crisis of such magnitude, the lack of precedent is disturbing to top money managers and economists.
  • If Greece were to leave the union, other members with similar debt issues could soon capitulate triggering a cascade of similar debt crises resulting in a fractured EU, with regional sovereign currencies.
  • As a seasoned traveler in high demand on the public speaking circuit around the world, our guest outlines his ideal destinations, including his home in Puerto Rico and his favorite country, Australia.
  • Harry S. Dent Jr. is anticipating a US stock market correction of 15-20% in the summer / fall months. He's convinced that all market bubbles must return to their inception point.
  • The US housing bubble has not yet returned to the year 2000 levels, increasing sector risk.
  • The host proposes that the massive shadow inventory held on bank balance sheets will eventually enter the marketplace in tandem with the millions in hedge fund housing-inventory, opening a price sinkhole across the nation and a credit crisis part deux.
  • The host notes the alarming void of understanding regarding fiat money schemes and their onerous track records.
  • The only viable alternatives, gold and silver, will eventually reflect their true intrinsic value, potentially hundreds of fold higher than current prices.
Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., Returns with comments on the latest Grexit drama, noting the situation is more significant than implied by mainline media reports - a default is imminent. Still, in the long-term horizon, a bankruptcy will benefit the nation as forced fiscal-responsibility curtails government-profligacy. He notes that the world is awash in bad debt and officials refuse to write-off the toxic loans. Yet due to a disconnect between lenders and the system, the losses are averted, indefinably. The only country to effectively ameliorate the debt problem is Iceland, which defaulted on foreign debt shielding constituents from predatory lending practices. Having taken the prescribed panacea, after two years of major adjustments, the Icelandic economy has emerged from the malaise intact and better prepared to thrive in an increasingly complex / competitive global economic landscape. Their remarkable saga is an ideal case study / blue print for officials in the BRICS nations as well as the US / EU / Japan. Given that the EU has never faced a financial crisis of such magnitude, the lack of precedent is disturbing to top money managers and economists. If Greece were to leave the union, other members with similar debt issues could soon capitulate, triggering a cascade of similar debt crises resulting in a fractured EU with regional sovereign currencies. As a seasoned traveler in high demand on the public speaking circuit around the world, our guest outlines his ideal destinations, including his home in Puerto Rico and his favorite country Australia. In addition, Scandinavian countries such as Sweden and Norway have extraordinary maternity benefits to the benefit of their workforce and demographics. Harry S. Dent Jr. Is anticipating a US stock market correction of 15-20% in the summer / fall months. He's convinced that all market bubbles must return to their inception point. While similar to the internet stock bubble of the late 1990's, the US housing bubble has not yet completely deflated back to year 2000 levels, making the sector risky. The echo housing recovery is predicated on collaterlized MBS debt, similar to the gimmicks that lead up to the original housing crisis of 2008. The host proposes that the massive shadow inventory held on bank balance sheets will eventually enter the market in tandem with the millions in hedge fund housing inventory, opening a massive price sinkhole across the nation and a credit crisis part deux. The host notes the alarming void of understanding regarding fiat money schemes and their onerous track records. Despite protestations of naysayers, when faith is lost in paper money, currencies will be anathema to wealth preservation oriented investors - the only viable alternatives gold and silver will eventually reflect their true intrinsic value, potentially hundreds of fold higher than current prices.

 

Bill Murphy & Chris Waltzek - July 2, 2015.

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Recap:

  • Bill Murphy from GATA.org and the host discuss the summer doldrums, noting how financial troubles in the EU have turned capital flows to the perceived safety of US equities / dollar.
  • However, the tactic could backfire as the temporary safe haven has enormous debt burdens as well.
  • For instance, the Governor of Puerto Rico announced this week that $70 billion in debt is unpayable, much smaller than the $400 billion owed by Greece.
  • The US is the grand champion of debt with unfunded liabilities are $210 trillion, five times the EU's unfunded burden of $40 trillion (Dr. Kotlikoff, 2015).
  • When unfunded liabilities are excluded and only debt on the books is examined, the US, UK and many competing nations share similar debt levels as Greece (Figure 1.1.).
  • Media reports suggest that China has accumulated over 10,000 tons of gold in preparation to back the Yuan with the metal, making it the new de facto global reserve currency.
  • Bill Murphy notes that the when the PMs bear market ends, prices will explode higher.
  • The host forecasts that after 2 small hikes in the benchmark rate in September and again in December, the Fed will pause, presenting an excellent opportunity to increase dollar cost averaging efforts.
  • The gold repatriation theme is gaining momentum as even US states demand billions of their gold reserves are returned.
  • Are officials positioning their chess pieces in anticipation of a new global reserve currency?

Bill Murphy from GATA.org and the host discuss the summer doldrums, noting how financial troubles in the EU have turned capital flows to the perceived safety of US equities / dollar. However, the tactic could backfire as the temporary safe haven has enormous debt burdens as well. For instance, the Governor of Puerto Rico announced this week that $70 billion in debt is unpayable, much smaller than the $400 billion owed by Greece. Nevertheless, the US is the grand champion of debt with unfunded liabilities are $210 trillion five times the EU's unfunded burden of $40 trillion (Dr. Kotlikoff, 2015). When unfunded liabilities are excluded and only debt on the books is examined, the US, UK and many competing nations share similar debt levels as Greece (Figure 1.1.).

Figure 1.1. Debt % of GDP: US & Competing Nations

Note: Graph courtesy of The Spectator.

In addition, the duo discuss media reports that officials in China have accumulated over 10,000 tons of gold in preparation to back the Yuan with the metal, making it the new de facto global reserve currency. Bill Murphy notes that the when the PMs bear market ends, prices will explode higher - the host forecasts that after 2 small hikes in the benchmark rate in September and again in December, the Fed will pause, presenting an excellent opportunity to increase dollar cost averaging efforts.

 

Figure 1.2. China's Gold Reserves - Gold Backed Yuan

Note: Graph courtesy of BullionStar.com.

Moreover, the gold repatriation theme is gaining momentum as countries and even US states demand billions of their gold reserves returned from national / foreign coffers. But could there be more to the story than meets the eye? Might officials be positioning their chess pieces in anticipation of a new global reserve currency? For example, could EU nations such as Austria, Netherlands, Switzerland, et al., be preparing for an inevitable euro currency failure and a return to former sovereign currency? In similar fashion, might Texan officials among others, be anticipating a US Dollar implosion and perhaps conflict among the provinces? At the very least, national dialogue on the topic is advisable.

 

Bob Hoye & Chris Waltzek - July 1, 2015.

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Recap:

  • Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, and the host unravel the latest Greek drama.

  • After months of warning of a Cypriot-like moment in Greece, on Monday morning depositors were locked out of Greek banks. Only ATMs were functional, most of which have low withdrawal limits imposed. ATMs were emptied quickly, as seen in the following video.

  • The US may face a Grexit via a Puert-xit, as the Puerto Rico province battles creditors over billions of unpayable debts (Figure 1.2).
  • Several states / municipalities are approaching Detroit-style bankruptcies.
  • It's advisable for every household to prepare for something similar by increasing PMs exposure as well as stockpiling dried / canned goods / cash, etc.
  • The trouble seems to stem in part from a misunderstanding regarding debt. Debt is a valuable leverage instrument when times are solid, yet when future prospects sour, the leverage enhancing tool can become an unbeatable burden.
  • A gold market trend confirmation method involves the gold/CRB ratio ($Gold:$CRB) ratio.

  • When the ratio is above the trend line, a bull market is present, as gold outperforms the commodities-sector proxy.

  • Fed governors John Williams and Jerome Powell, expressed their hawkish rate epistemologies.

  • Instead of "one and done", "two and done, maybe" seems likely, suggestive that the benchmark rate will be hiked for the first time since 2008 in September and the second increase in December.

  • Analysts at leading investment bank Goldman Sachs reconfirmed earlier comments that the US dollar and euro would trade at parity before 2016, hinting at continued greenback strength.

  • Bob Hoye and the host share Peter Spina's sentiments that under such a deflationary environment, gold tends to hold its value relative to virtually every other asset price.

Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, and the host unravel the latest Greek drama - after months of warning of a Cypriot-like moment in Greece, on Monday morning depositors were locked out of Greek banks, only ATMs were functional, most of which have low withdrawal limits imposed. ATMs were emptied quickly, as seen in the following video (Figure 1.1.). The news is not only devastating to savers, but to the EU, which appears to be unraveling in slow motion.

Figure 1.1. Greek Banks Closed - At Least 1 Week

Note: Video courtesy of www.YouTube.com All rights reserved, copyright 2015.

Unfortunately, the US may face a Grexit or Puert-xit, as the Puerto Rico province battles creditors over billions of unpayable debts (Figure 1.2). In addition, several states / municipalities are approaching Detroit-style bankruptcies. Given our guests anecdote from antiquity: "Lithic ex sanguinary" (creditors squeeze blood from rocks) it's advisable for every household to prepare for something similar by increasing PMs exposure as well as stockpiling dried / canned goods / cash, etc. The trouble seems to stem in part from a misunderstanding regarding debt. Debt is a valuable leverage instrument when times are solid, yet when future prospects sour, the leverage enhancing tool can become an unbearable burden.

Figure 1.2. Puert-xit: Puerto Rico Debt Issue

Note: Video courtesy of www.YouTube.com All rights reserved, copyright 2015.

Moreover, an interesting gold market trend confirmation method involves the gold/CRB ratio ($Gold:$CRB) ratio. In general, when the ratio is above the trend line, a bull market is present, as gold outperforms the commodities-sector proxy (Figure 1.3.).

Figure 1.3. Gold/CRB Ratio

Note: Chart provided with permission from Stockcharts.com

In the wake of the recent FOMC meeting, two key Fed governors John Williams and Jerome Powell, expressed their hawkish rate epistemologies. Instead of "one and done", "two and done, maybe" seems likely, suggestive that the benchmark rate will be hiked for the first time since 2008 in September and the second increase in December. The comments sent the US dollar higher last week, which promptly closed at the highest point in three weeks. Analysts at leading investment bank Goldman Sachs reconfirmed earlier comments that the US dollar and euro would trade at parity before 2016, hinting at continued greenback strength. Bob Hoye and the host share Peter Spina's sentiments that under such a deflationary environment, the Deus ex machina (divine intervention) gold tends to hold its value relative to virtually every other asset price.

 

 

Listener's Q&A (phone / email) - Chris Waltzek - June 25, 2015.

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Recap.:

  • Friends of the show call in with their questions and comments.
  • The first caller wants to know if it is prudent to buy or rent a home.
  • The Rule of 100 yields a home price estimate - multiply comparable monthly rent by 100: $1,000 per month in rent suggests a price of $100,000.
  • Gold and silver remain the quintessential portfolio insurance - when every other asset fails, gold and silver lined life boats will save the day.
  • Given Dr. Ron Paul’s latest video (Figure 1.1.) where he claims that millions of investors will be wiped out in the coming financial collapse, the seven year cycle noted by Martin Armstrong, the Shemitah seven year cycle and the fact that there hasn’t been even a 10% stock market correction since 2011, the precious metals remain an essential asset class for every portfolio.
  • A 25% allocation is sufficient to offset financial carnage.
  • Younger investors are encouraged to increase the allocation percentage while seniors can use PMs dividends to boost investment income.
  • It is advisable to use the sluggish price levels as an opportunity to lower their dollar cost average gold / silver price.
  • PMs facilitate higher asset risk without jeopardizing overall safety, and as every student of finance knows, higher risk can equate with improved reward when managed scientifically.
  • Gold and silver are the bedrock / cornerstone of a portfolio. Would you try to build a house without a foundation?
  • Investors are urged to ask how much they can lose without a solid PMs foundation before asking how much they can gain from a popular stock.
  • The Alpha Stocks Portfolio is facilitated by a rigorous correlation matrix analysis to maximize overall return and minimize losses.
  • Alpha stocks portfolios regularly offer expected returns of 30-50% annually and zero expect losses (optimized portfolio results).
  • The portfolio facilitates peace of mind of knowing that funds are maximized and losses minimized.
  • For a limited time, new subscriptions are offered with zero risk, if you are not satisfied after the first 30 days, a refund is issued and account canceled without further obligation.
  • John from San Diego expresses doubts about the economic recovery.
  • Vidya anticipates a stock market buying opportunity after a correction.

Friends of the show call in with their questions and comments. The first caller wants to know if it is prudent to buy or rent a home. The Rule of 100 yields a home price estimate. Simply multiply comparable monthly rent by 100: $1,000 per month in rent suggests a price of $100,000 for a comparable home price (100 x $1,000 or $100,000). Gold and silver remain the quintessential portfolio insurance - when every other asset fails, gold and silver lined life boats will save the day. Given Dr. Ron Paul’s latest video (Figure 1.1.) Where he claims that millions of investors will be wiped out in the coming financial maelstrom, the seven year cycle noted by Martin Armstrong, the Shemitah seven year cycle from Rabbi Cahn (see video down this page) and the fact that there hasn’t been even a 10% stock market correction since 2011, the precious metals remain an essential asset class for every portfolio.

Figure 1.1. 12-Term Congressman Dr. Ron Paul's Warning to Americans about the Coming Currency Crisis

Note: Video courtesy of YouTube.com.

The unbroken 12 year bull market in gold, which never recorded a down year, required a consolidation. Gold and silver remain the quintessential portfolio insurance. When every other asset fails, gold and silver lined life boats will save the day. A 25% gold allocation is a sufficient starting point to offset financial carnage. Younger investors are encouraged to increase the allocation percentage via income, while seniors can benefit from PMs dividends to boost investment income. Investors are encouraged to use the sluggish price levels as an opportunity to lower their dollar cost average gold / silver price. Given Dr. Ron Paul’s latest video where he claims that millions of investors will be wiped out in the coming financial collapse, the seven year cycle noted by Martin Armstrong, the Shemitah seven year cycle and the fact that there hasn’t been even a 10% stock market correction since 2011, PMs assets belong in every portfolio. Listeners are encouraged to tinker with a simple portfolio return via ticker symbols: (GLD) (SLV) and (GDX). PMs, decrease volatility, lowering risk markedly while enhancing expected return. Also, PMs facilitate higher asset risk without jeopardizing overall safety, and as every student of finance knows, higher risk can equate with improved reward when managed scientifically. Gold and silver are the bedrock / cornerstone of a portfolio. Would you try to build a house without a foundation first? It would crumble and fall to pieces, undoing all of your efforts time and money spent. Similarly, investors ontology's can change by asking how much they can lose without a solid PMs foundation in my portfolio instead of how they will gain. For instance, the Alpha Stocks Portfolio involves rigorous correlation matrix analysis to maximize overall return and minimize losses. Alpha stocks newsletter subscribers portfolios with expected returns of 30-50% annually and zero expect losses, with the proviso of optimized portfolio result. The portfolio facilitates peace of mind of knowing that funds are maximized and losses minimized. For a limited time, new subscriptions are offered with zero risk, if you are not satisfied after the first 30 days, a refund is issued and account canceled without further obligation. John from San Diego expresses doubts on the economic recovery. Vidya anticipates a stock market buying opportunity after a correction.

 

Louis Navellier & Chris Waltzek - June 24, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Louis Navellier insists stock-picking in strong sectors is essential, such as technology, health-care, consumer durables / staples, and home improvement.

  • He shares several investing opportunities, including: CVS pharmacy (CVS) and Blow's home improvement (LOW).

  • Domestic small-cap / mid-caps are preferred over large-cap, which have higher dollar exposure.

  • The political backlash against rate-hikes could be intense, putting a ceiling on the benchmark rate.

  • Increasing the allocation of gold and precious metals is advisable, particularly for European investors due to dollar strength and relative euro weakness.

  • As capital inflows intensify, the US economy could grow its way out of the debt issues.

  • Given that Fed rate cuts are instrumental to protracted stock market rallies (Figure 1.1), cut the imminent rate hikes halt the seven-year, equities bull-market?

Louis Navellier's of Navellier Growth and the free must-bookmark / free link: Portfolio Grader, thinks stock-picking is essential in the current environment - investors must rotate away from nonproductive sectors into more productive avenues, such as technology, health-care, consumer durables / staples, and home improvement. He shares several investing opportunities, including: CVS pharmacy (CVS) and Blow's home improvement (LOW). He prefers the domestic small-cap / mid-caps over large-cap, which have higher dollar exposure. The political backlash against rate-hikes could be intense, putting a ceiling on the benchmark rate. Increasing the allocation of gold and precious metals is advisable, particularly for European investors due to dollar strength and relative euro weakness. Much of the world views the US as an oasis for capital, a safe haven in a uncertain global environment. Therefore, as capital inflows intensify, the US economy could grow its way out of the debt issues. Given that Fed rate cuts are instrumental to protracted stock market rallies (Figure 1.1), cut the imminent rate hikes halt the seven-year, equities bull-market?

Figure 1.1 FOMC Rate Hikes - Stock Market Impact

Note: Graph courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

 

Peter Schiff & Chris Waltzek - June 23, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com says the Fed is bluffing - if the officials pull the QE plug, the national economic engine will stall.
  • While the world is focused on the Grexit, Peter Schiff says the US debt problem is much worse, making default an inevitability and the precious metals safe haven the investment du jour.
  • The gold repatriation movement is gaining momentum, not only abroad, but now domestically - the Lone Star state has requested the return of its $1 billion gold reserves from the Fed.
  • Pandora's box is open, which could lead to a cascade of states demanding gold, igniting a potential run on sovereignty around the globe.
  • Peter Schiff and company have found the perfect panacea, a gold digital currency (gold-backed Bitcoin).
  • The symbiotic partnership with the Perth Mint in Australia virtually guarantees minimal fees and geographic diversification - a most overlooked yet essential portfolio planning criteria.
  • For listeners who host online businesses, Peter Schiff suggests his Schiff Bank Referral program as an income-stream generating opportunity.
  • Prospective home buyers, those who missed the housing crash nadir of 2012 could be treated to discounts as institutions and hedge funds unload inventory in the coming years.

On the cusp of the first Fed rate hike since 2008, Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com says the Fed is bluffing - if officials pull the QE plug, the national economic engine will stall. While the world is focused on the Grexit, the US debt problem is much worse - estimates of $210 trillion in unfunded liabilities (Professor Laurence Kotlikoff) making default an inevitability and the precious metals safe haven the investment du jour. The gold repatriation movement is gaining momentum, not only abroad, but now domestically - the Lone Star state has requested the return of its $1 billion gold reserves from the Fed. But even if the gold is returned, it may be the only lucky state. Experts believe the national reserves have been leased / rehypothecated similar to a Ponzi scheme. Nevertheless, Pandora's box is open, which could lead to a cascade of states demanding gold, igniting a potential run on sovereignty around the globe. The bottom line is that people have lost faith in their officials. Peter Schiff and company have found the perfect panacea, a gold digital currency (gold-backed Bitcoin). The symbiotic partnership with the Perth Mint in Australia virtually guarantees minimal fees and geographic diversification - a most overlooked yet essential portfolio planning criteria. Via a simple debit card swipe, anyone outside the US can make purchases that are backed by sound money. He has plans for an alternative for Americans, within one year. For listeners who host online businesses, Peter Schiff suggests his Schiff Bank Referral program as an income-stream generating opportunity. Prospective home buyers, those who missed the housing crash nadir of 2012 predicted in Wealth Building Strategies (2010), could be treated to discounts as institutions and hedge funds unload inventory in the coming years.

 

Professor Laurence Kotlikoff & Chris Waltzek - June 18, 2014.
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Summary:

  • Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff, author of the Inform Act (please click to sign, supported by 17 Nobel Laureates) recently gave a speech before the US Senate.
  • He showed that the government is broke; the actual national debt is 12 times the annual GDP, $210 trillion when unfunded liabilities are included.
  • His solution to the dilemma, the Inform Act has the support of over 17 Noble Prize winning economists.
  • According to his findings, the US government is in far worse fiscal shape than Detroit when officials declared bankruptcy.
  • Since 2007, the Fed balance sheet has increased by over 4 fold, comparable to other nations before declaring bankruptcy.
  • Given the domestic debt situation, Dr. Kotlikoff expects the perfect economic melange for hyperinflation to send prices soaring.
  • No government agency has agreed to follow his economic panacea, fiscal gap accounting, which is required to resolve the issue via transparency.
Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff, a Boston University economics professor and author of the new bestseller The Clash of Generations, and the Inform Act (please click to sign, supported by 17 Nobel Laureates) recently gave a speech before the US Senate, noting that the government is broke; the actual national debt is 12 times the annual GDP, $210 trillion when unfunded liabilities are included. His Inform Act has the support of over 17 Noble Prize winning economists, 12,000 economists and even the Former Secretary of the US Treasury signed it. According to his findings, the US government is in far worse fiscal shape than Detroit when officials declared bankruptcy. Since 2007, the Fed balance sheet has increased by over 4 fold, comparable to other nations before declaring bankruptcy. Given the domestic debt situation, Dr. Kotlikoff expects the perfect economic melange for hyperinflation to send prices soaring, perhaps not this month, this year or even next year, but inevitably. No government agency has agreed to follow his economic panacea, fiscal gap accounting, which is required to resolve the issue via transparency.

 

Charles Hughes Smith & Chris Waltzek - June 17, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Charles Hughes Smith from Of Two Minds makes his debut.
  • The US pays twice per capita for healthcare than in competitor nations.
  • Institutions purchased foreclosed properties at bargain basement prices, thousands at a time, resulting excessive real estate prices in desirable areas.
  • The global central bank QE plan involving low rates is backfiring as bond investors bid up yields due to default risk issues.
  • The guest / host discuss the Fed monetary base, which has moved in a parabolic fashion since the stock market bottom in 2009.
  • Charles notes that the actual economy has experienced little if any growth.
  • Most markets are approaching bubble-like condition.

Charles Hughes Smith from Of Two Minds makes his debut - he's concerned about national health car costs, noting that the US pays twice per capita than in competitor nations. Institutions purchased foreclosed properties at bargain basement prices, thousands at a time, which is causing excessive real estate prices in desirable areas and pricing out young buyers. The global central bank QE plan involving low rates is backfiring as bond investors bid up yields due to default risk issues. The guest / host discuss the Fed monetary base, which has moved in a parabolic fashion since the stock market bottom in 2009, a likely underpinning of the economic recovery. Charles notes that Fed profligacy is encouraging the extraction of profits through monetary means, but the actual economy has experienced little if any growth. Investors have been put in an impossible position - in already bubble-like markets.

 

Peter Grandich & Chris Waltzek - June 15, 2015.

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Summary:

  • According to Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company gold is currently trading several times lower than its intrinsic value.
  • Aficionado will delight at his lofty price target.
  • Although market timing can be a profitable and rewarding venture, nevertheless after 30 years of impressive forecasts he's had an epiphany: it only requires one poorly executed trade to ruin decades of work.
  • He's converted to portfolio indexing and diversification with his family's nest egg.
  • A solid core portfolio of index ETFs or mutual funds can facilitate any investor to outperform the top 80% of professional money managers and peace of mind.
  • He's convinced that the worst is over for PMs investors - the 2 year consolidation is actually a spring board to much higher prices.
  • The discussion shifts to the Grexit drama - unfortunately, debt negotiations broke down over the weekend and default appears imminent.
  • Over $1 billion fled national bank accounts in merely a 24 hour period. Peter
  • Grandich expects the Euro currency to be replaced as the current system is beyond repair.

According to Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company gold is currently trading several times lower than its intrinsic value - aficionado will delight at his lofty price target. Our guest thinks market timing can be a profitable and rewarding venture, nevertheless after 30 years of impressive forecasts he's had an epiphany; it only requires one poorly executed trade to ruin decades of work. He's converted to portfolio indexing and diversification with his family's nest egg - the peace of mind is well worth the opportunity cost. How many market timers forecasted the 2009-2015 equities bull market or worse, shorted the market? Instead, a solid core portfolio of index ETFs or mutual funds can facilitate any investor to outperform the top 80% of professional money managers and peace of mind. Peter Grandich notes the market rigging in the interest rate, equities and relate markets, but when analysts discuss gold market manipulation, the conspiracy theory moniker is a common retort. He's convinced that the worst is over for PMs investors - the 2 year consolidation is actually a spring board to much higher prices. The discussion shifts to the Grexit drama - unfortunately, debt negotiations broke down over the weekend and default appears imminent. Over $1 billion fled national bank accounts in merely a 24 hour period. Peter Grandich expects the Euro currency to be replaced as the current system is beyond repair.

Ralph Acampora & Chris Waltzek - June 11, 2015.

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Note: Image courtesy of CNBC.

Summary:

  • Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management makes his show début - the respected Wall Street veteran / visionary notes that the US equities have not registered even a 10% correction in the primary bull market since 2011.
  • Not until the crowd returns to equities will the bull market register a peak.
  • Our guest expects interest rates to climb over the next decade, lowering demand for bonds, adding upward momentum to the stock bull market.
  • Still, his Dow Theory work is flashing a warning signal as the Dow transportation index failed to follow the Dow Jones Industrials to new highs.
  • A similar non-confirmation occurred prior to the year 2000 stock market meltdown.
  • Should a correction occur, our guest suggests high yielding utility stock, tax-free municipal bond and global equity alternatives.
  • Once the bull market resumes, sector rotation is advisable into financials, consumer discretionary, healthcare and technology.
  • Our guest advises his high net worth clients to maintain gold exposure.

Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management makes his show début - the respected Wall Street veteran / visionary views the US equities market as a leading economic indicator, noting that there hasn't been a 10% correction in the primary bull market since 2011. Main street is still nervous following the 2008 crisis on Wall Street - not until the crowd returns to equities will the ultimate bull market peak come to pass. Our guest expects interest rates to climb over the next decade, lowering demand for bonds, slowly directing funds to US stocks and pushing the equities indexes higher. Nevertheless, his Dow Theory work is flashing a warning signal, a long-term trend indicator as the Dow transportation index failed to follow the Dow Jones Industrials to new highs. Interestingly, a similar non-confirmation occurred just prior to the year 2000 stock market meltdown. Should a correction occur, our guest suggests high yielding utility stock, tax-free municipal bond and global equity alternatives. Once the bull market resumes, sector rotating into into financials, consumer discretionary, healthcare and technology is advisable. Regarding the precious metals sector, our guest advises his high net worth clients to maintain exposure for insurance purposes.

 

 

 

Robert Kiyosaki & Chris Waltzek - June 10, 2015.

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Summary:

  • America's 'Rich Dad' penned the NEW Bestseller, Second Chance: for Your Money, Your Life and Our World (2015) a book for every investor regardless of acumen level with pictures and graphs to insure that readers gain much more than the price of the book.
  • The Rich Dad book series author is ignoring the skeptics, adding 100 US Gold Eagles to his seizable stockpile.
  • His preference for hard assets over equities stems from the epic battle between inflation and deflation.
  • Given that financial derivatives exposure has increased from $700 trillion circa 2007 to $1.2 quadrillion in 2015, expect an astronomic climb in the gold price.
  • He prefers rental properties over most real estate classes.
  • Robert Kiyosaki suggests partnering with the government to earn oversized profits by providing affordable rental housing and or solar alternatives.
  • He encourages everyone to watch his video The Man who Could See The Future on June 15th, free of charge or here today with Spanish subtitles : here.

The Man Who Could See the Future - Spanish from Rich Dad on Vimeo.

America's Rich Dad returns to the show - he's penned the NEW Bestseller, Second Chance: for Your Money, Your Life and Our World (2015) a book for every investor regardless of acumen level with pictures and graphs to insure that readers gain much more than the price of the book. The Rich Dad book series author is ignoring the skeptics, buying the portfolio insurance with a lifetime term, adding 100 US Gold Eagles to his seizable stockpile. His preference for hard assets over equities stems from the global battle between inflation and deflation, strengthening his resolve to own the precious metals. Given that financial derivatives exposure has increased from $700 trillion circa 2007 to $1.2 quadrillion in 2015 (non-notional value / interest rate sensitive), he expects a deflationary crisis to convince the global central banking cartel to expand the monetary supply intensely, resulting in an astronomic climb in the gold price. He prefers rental properties over most real estate classes. Robert Kiyosaki suggests that entrepreneurs follow in his and Elon Musk's footsteps, partnering with the government to earn oversized profits by providing affordable rental housing and or solar alternatives. He encourages everyone to watch his video The Man who Could See The Future on June 15th, free of charge. Also available free in Spanish: here.

 

Dr. Burton Malkiel, Princeton Professor Emeritus & Chris Waltzek - June 3, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Dr. Malkiel, the author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street says no gurus, analysts or forecasters, can help investors earn profits on a consistent basis.
  • In fact, by attempting to outsmart the markets 99.99% of investors underperform index funds.
  • By accepting that no one can time the market with a high degree of certainty, investors enrich their wealth via passive investing.
  • Portfolio diversification and dollar cost averaging (buying at a steady pace, while ignoring the price) are the hallmarks of investing success.
  • Dr. Malkiel thinks virtually every asset class is overvalued, not just stocks, as the Fed holds lending rates artificially low to bolster economic conditions.
  • The professor suggests lifecycle funds or target funds that automatically adjust portfolio allocation based on individual age and expected life span.

Dr. Malkiel, the author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street with 11 editions and written four decades ago, takes a bold stance when it comes to market forecasting / prediction. He says its all bunk - gurus, analysts forecasters, none of the above can help investors earn profits on a consistent basis. In fact, by attempting to outsmart the markets 99.99% of investors underperform index funds. For instance, investor capital piled into the stock market at the dot com peak in 2000 and even more money fled the market at the beginning of the bull market near 2009 - both periods marked the worst possible time to enter / exit the markets. Nevertheless, by accepting that no one can time the market with a high degree of certainty, investors enrich their wealth via passive investing. Portfolio diversification and dollar cost averaging (buying at a steady pace, while ignoring the price). Interestingly, Dr. Malkiel thinks virtually every asset class is overvalued, not just stocks, as the Fed holds lending rates artificially low to bolster economic conditions. The loose monetary policy is flooding the economy with easy money, encouraging speculation. The professor suggests lifecycle funds or target funds that automatically adjust portfolio allocation based on individual age and expected life span.

 

Michael Belkin & Chris Waltzek - June 2, 2015.

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Note: Image courtesy of Fox News, copyright 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Summary:

  • Michael Belkin of The Belkin Report, and the new Belkin Gold Stock Forecast for individual investors, makes his show début.
  • He is advising institutional clients / hedge funds to rotate out of US equities and into his hand picked gold stocks.
  • The gold market has bottomed and the major US equities indexes are forming a key top.
  • Many of his gold / silver stock candidates have soared 100-300% in 2015, not just penny stocks, but bellwether companies as well.
  • The gold stock guru generously shares several ticker symbols of his favorite gold / silver stocks.
  • His models indicate a forceful gold stock rally is imminent, after which investors will pile into the market via technical buy signals.
  • Takeaway point: the bear market in gold / silver equities is over.

Michael Belkin of The Belkin Report, and the new Belkin Gold Stock Forecast an economical service for individual investors has established a respected 23 year record of forecasting success. Our guest outlines his models that show the gold market has bottomed and the major US equities index bubble is forming a key top. The former Solomon Brothers analyst / quant thinks the Fed is following the same path that lead to the market peak of 2007 and the subsequent 2 year crash, but this time conditions are far more perilous for investors due to excessive "QE Kool-Aid." He is advising his institutional clients / hedge funds to rotate out of US equities and into hand picked gold stocks. Why is he so bullish on gold stocks when most eyes are on tech stocks? Although the gold stock indexes are consolidating, individual gold equities are diverging sharply, staging impressive rallies. Despite the sluggish sector performance, many of the gold / silver stock candidates are higher by 100-300% in 2015, not just penny stocks, but bellwether companies, too. The gold stock guru generously shares several of his favorite gold / silver stock ticker symbols. His models indicate a forceful gold stock rally is imminent, after which investors will pile into the market as technical indicators trigger buy signals followed by a positive sea change in institutional sentiment. Takeaway point: the bear market in gold / silver equities is over.

Rob Kirby & Chris Waltzek - May 29, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics says geopolitical tensions are the result of the unsound fiat money system and the resulting economic distress.
  • By kicking the economic can down the interstate highway, our officials are positioning for global warfare, which could erupt as soon as 2015.
  • Our guest is convinced that the People's Bank of China has accumulated at least 2 thousand tons of gold bullion per year.
  • Expect a ban on cash, relegating paper bills / coins to the garbage bin. The shift could facilitate a total surveillance state, where all transactions, no matter how small, leave a digital finger print. The host recommends Miles Franklin offshore accounts for precious metals storage (no affiliation).
  • When money is debased, creativity and the entrepreneurial / individualistic spirit are crushed.
  • Given the less than savory economic prospects facing most investors, the guest insists that portfolio diversification is a necessity, in particular, gold and silver assets.
  • Rob Kirby paraphrases friend of the show, John Embry of Sprott Asset Management, "With precious metals, you can always afford to be two years early, but you can never afford to be ten minutes late."
  • The urgency is underscored by his finding that hyperinflationary events tend to occur in lightening like fashion, without warning.

Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics says geopolitical tensions are the result of the unsound fiat money system and the resulting economic distress. Consequentially, by kicking the economic can down the interstate highway, our officials are positioning for global warfare, which could erupt as soon as 2015. Our guest is convinced that the People's Bank of China has accumulated at least 2 thousand tons of gold bullion per year, for at least a decade, a stockpile perhaps rivaling all other nations combined, including the United States. His sources indicate that large bullion purchases in Asia sometimes require a price in excess of $500 over spot, due to supply constraints. As officials lose control of the global monetary system around the world, including North America, expect a ban on cash, relegating paper bills / coins to the garbage bin. The shift could facilitate a total surveillance state where all transactions, no matter how small, leave a digital finger print. Nevertheless, given the prevalence of government corruption, the loss of liberty could be intense, including a ban on the purchase of precious metals. As the PTB encourage intense social flare-ups, a false flag event could ignite the next Hegalian crisis, which at its root is due to currency debasement and financial machinations. When money is debased creativity and the entrepreneurial / individualistic spirit are crushed - the very backbone of capitalistic success is eviscerated as the lower 99% are forced to become government drones. Given the less than sanguine economic prospects facing most investors, the guest insists that portfolio diversification is a necessity, in particular, gold and silver assets. Kirby paraphrases friend of the show, John Embry of Sprott Asset Management, "With precious metals, you can always afford to be two years early, but you can never afford to be ten minutes late." The urgency is underscored by his finding that hyperinflationary events tend to occur in lightening fashion, appearing from no where amid seemingly trivial events.

 

Bill Murphy & Chris Waltzek - May 27, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Bill Murphy from GATA.org and the host discuss a report from Bloomberg News analysts who claim, if the People's Bank of China (PBoC) supports the Yuan with gold, approximately 1,000 tons, the move would send the price of gold soaring to $64,000 per ounce, 50 times the current price.
  • In addition, reports from Venezuela indicate 64% inflation, approaching 5% per month as the Bolivar currency collapses.
  • Venezuelan money growth is approaching exponential levels, eerily similar to the Fed's balance sheet.

Bill Murphy from GATA.org and the host discuss a report from Bloomberg News analysts who claim, if the People's Bank of China (PBoC) supports the Yuan with gold, approximately 1,000 tons, the move would send the price of gold soaring to $64,000 per ounce, 50 times the current price. In addition, reports from Venezuela indicate 64% inflation, approaching 5% per month as the Bolivar currency collapses - many economists consider 10% per month runaway inflation. Figure 1.1. shows how Venezuelan money growth is approaching exponential levels, eerily similar to the Fed's balance sheet, also shown in a figure further down this web page.

 

Figure 1.1. Venezuelan Money Growth - 64% Inflation

Note: Graph courtesy of tradingeconomics.com.

The XAU is lower than when Bill Murphy entered the industry 16 years earlier. He's never seen such conditions in the sector - likening the current environment to a depression.

 

Fabian Calvo & Chris Waltzek - May 21, 2015.

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Summary:

Fabian Calvo from the NoteHouse.us, is watching US equities market margin levels with a weary eye, each time the crash harbinger overextended in the past a recession followed.

Approximately 1 out of 3 American's cannot find gainful employment or have given up the search for meaningful employment, 93 million souls - impacting at least one person in every household.

Never before in history has this number been so high.

Fabian's work shows that half of all jobs will be be replaced by automation in the next decade, resulting in a Terminator Movie like scenario. Most people will be caught off guard with the boomerang like shift.

The solution: job seekers must retool their skill set in advance of the coming workplace sea change.

The old job paradigm: go to college and accumulate debt has failed; the new paradigm involves online entrepreneurship and vocational training.

By building a solid skill set, entrepreneurial minded people can better prepare for the increasingly challenging / dynamic workplace.

 

Fabian Calvo from the NoteHouse.us, a $100 million portfolio of distressed properties is watching US equities market margin levels with a weary eye, each time the crash harbinger overextended in the past a recession followed. The leading indicator remains at record levels. Nevertheless one can clearly see how the inevitable divergence in price lead to market crises (see Figure 1.1.).

Figure 1.1. US Equities Margin Debt

Note: Graph courtesy of dshort.com - analysis from Chris G. Waltzek at radio.goldseek.com

Approximately 1 out of 3 American's cannot find gainful employment or have given up the search for meaningful employment, 93 million souls - impacting at least one person in every household. Never before in history has this number been so high. Fabian's work shows that half of all jobs will be be replaced by automation in the next decade, resulting in a Terminator Movie like scenario. Most people will be caught off guard with the boomerang like shift. The solution: job seekers must retool their skill set in advance of the coming workplace sea change. The old job paradigm: go to college and accumulate debt has failed; the new paradigm involves online entrepreneurship and vocational training. By building a solid skill set, entrepreneurial minded people can better prepare for the increasingly challenging / dynamic workplace.

 

Arch Crawford & Chris Waltzek - May 20, 2015.

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Summary:

Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, elucidates listeners with comments on the impending FOMC rate hike, slated for September / December 2015.
He's doubtful that domestic economic conditions are robust enough to sustain a rate hike.
Arch is concerned by the US equities market, which is making 118 year highs on extremely low volume, which he thinks is a sign of manipulation.
The discussion includes Martin Armstrong's market timing model, which seems to coincide with the Hebrew Shemita (Shmita) a seven year cycle of amnesty.
The cycle is nearing another seven year zenith, coinciding with the expected Fed rate hike this Fall.
Could an FOMC rate increase trigger a global economic landslide? Many recent guests certainly think so.
The discussion continues with a review of the trading strategy of the legendary author / former Goldman Sach's trader and now professor, Dr. Nassim Taleb of Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan fame.
Arch discusses his investing style, which bares a striking resemblance to that of Nassim Taleb's.
In 2008, Arch invested $2,500 in puts and earned over $500,000, a two hundred fold return. He invests a small amount in a contrary fashion each month, to reap similar rewards when the crowd is wrong.
Arch worries that a Cyprus-like moment could become a reality on a much larger scale - Europeans, Asians and Americans could suddenly find their account balances adjusted to reflect a new currency, with perhaps a fifty percent reduction in purchasing power.

From his office in the Sonoran-Arizona desert, Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, elucidates listeners with comments on the impending FOMC rate hike, slated for September / December 2015. He's doubtful that domestic economic conditions are robust enough to sustain a rate hike. Arch is concerned by the US equities market, which is making 118 year highs on extremely low volume, which he thinks is a sign of manipulation. The discussion includes Martin Armstrong's market timing model, which seems to coincide with the Hebrew Shemita (Shmita) a seven year cycle of amnesty where all debts are forgiven and an agricultural year of rest where no planting, harvesting, watering, fertilizing or weeding is to take place. Arch notes similarities with an Arab tradition and a lunar cycle while directing listener's to Rabbi Jonathan Cahn's YouTube Shemitah discussion (see Figure 1.1):

Figure 1.1. Shemitah - Rabbi Cahn

Note: The video is courtesy of YouTube.com.

The cycle is nearing another seven year zenith, coinciding with the expected Fed rate hike this Fall. Could an FOMC rate increase trigger a global economic landslide? Many recent guests certainly think so. The discussion continues with a review of the trading strategy of the legendary author / former Goldman Sach's trader and now professor, Dr. Nassim Taleb of Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan fame. The host agrees with Dr. Taleb that true market price is rarely normally distributed, making forecasts of expected portfolio returns challenging at best and devastating at times. Instead, by adhering to a Pareto or Leptokurtic market distribution, investors can shield the bulk of their wealth while profiting handsomely due to rare or Black Swan events. Arch discusses his investing style, which bares a striking resemblance to that of Nassim Taleb's. In 2008, Arch invested $2,500 in puts and earned over $500,000, a two hundred fold return. He invests a small amount in a contrary fashion each month, to reap similar rewards when the crowd is wrong. Arch worries that a Cyprus-like moment could become a reality on a much larger scale - Europeans, Asians and Americans could suddenly find their account balances adjusted to reflect a new currency, with perhaps a fifty percent reduction in purchasing power.

Bob Hoye & Chris Waltzek - May 15, 2015.

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Summary:

Bob Hoye, senior Investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, watches the market all day, every day, tick by tick.
Bob warns that correlation in the markets does not always imply causation.
Similarly, false conclusions such as credit expansion equates with economic growth - are at the foundation of faulty central bank policies.
From 1985-1995, a ten year period was required to double the Fed's balance sheet.
Next, from 1995-2009, approximately 14 years were required. But by 2009, the Fed doubled their balance sheet over night and again in 2012-2013 and still again in 2014.
What used to require 10-14 years is now happening every other year. Given the unprecedented bailout figure and subsequent credit injections.

The host proposes the bold idea: did the financial system fail in 2009 only to be held together by substantial CB duct tape?

In the 1920's the Fed began Open Market Operations for the first time in national history, holding rates artificially low in turn encouraging speculation, culminating with the 1929 stock market crash and Great Depression - a virtual playbook for the current economy.

Bob says the only thing holding back hyperinflation is the bond / stock market rally, where inflation is destined to eventually find its way to a gold / silver market near you.

Bob Hoye, senior Investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, watches the market all day, every day, tick by tick. The guest and host discuss an important tool for every investor - the keys to scientific / economic / financial understanding via Aristotelian syllogism, the process of deduction or drawing a conclusion based on two premises. For example:

First premise: the money supply is sharply higher,
Second premise: increased money supply encourages speculation,
Deduction: expect the stock market to rise.

Nonetheless, Bob warns that correlation in the markets does not always imply causation. Similarly, false conclusions such as credit expansion equates with economic growth - are at the foundation of faulty central bank policies. From 1985-1995, a ten year period was required to double the Fed's balance sheet. Next, from 1995-2009, approximately 14 years were required. But by 2009, the Fed doubled their balance sheet over night and again in 2012-2013 and still again in 2014. Putting a fine point on it, what used to require 10-14 years is now happening every other year. Given the unprecedented bailout figure and subsequent credit injections, the host proposes the bold idea: did the financial system fail in 2009 only to be held together by substantial CB duct tape? Sound implausible? In the 1920's the Fed began Open Market Operations for the first time in national history, holding rates artificially low in turn encouraging speculation, culminating with the 1929 stock market crash and Great Depression - a virtual playbook for the current economy. Bob says the only thing holding back hyperinflation is the bond / stock market rally, where inflation is destined to eventually find its way to a gold / silver market near you.

 

Andrew Maguire & Chris Waltzek - May 14, 2015.

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Summary:

Andrew Maguire, of Andrew Maguire Gold Trading makes his début appearance.

The 40 year gold market veteran and whistleblower, strengthens Ted Butler's silver market manipulation case.

Each ounce of exchange metal is leveraged 100 to 1.

Yet leverage of only 10 to 1 was required to ignite the Great Crash of 1929.

Our guest notes that the trading desks of the 6 key bullion banks and the BIS are in collusion, keenly aware of major turning points and culpable for sharing confidential information with associates.

The huge paper based, naked short position held by the bullion banks exposes them to sizable default risk.

Expect PMs market manipulation schemes to end in 2015, resulting in markedly improved transparency.

Andrew Maguire, of Andrew Maguire Gold Trading makes his début appearance on Goldseek.com Radio - the 40 year gold market veteran and whistleblower, strengthens Ted Butler's silver market manipulation case by exposing the nefarious machinations of the institutions purportedly responsible for market rigging and ultimately the closure of productive gold / silver mining operations - eliminating much needed jobs in the struggling sector. He worked with CFTC market regulators for a year, pinpointing the questionable market operations. His conversations with exchange officials indicates that each ounce of metal has less than 1/100th in metal backing, leveraged 100 to 1. Putting the threat to the entire global economic system into perspective, 10 to 1 leverage was arguably a primary cause of the Great Crash of 1929 on Wall Street. Magnify the leverage by a factor of 10 and a less than sanguine forecast emerges. Our guest notes that the trading desks of the 6 key bullion banks and the BIS are in collusion, keenly aware of major turning points and culpable for sharing confidential information with associates. The huge paper based, naked short position held by the bullion banks has exposed them to sizable default risk. The typical COMEX delivery involves moving bullion via a forklift from one side of the room to the other, a farcical / meaningless exercise. Whereas the competing Shanghai gold exchange regularly ships tons of bullion, worldwide. He expects PMs market manipulation schemes to end in 2015, resulting markedly improved transparency.

 

Listener's Q&A (phone / email) - Chris Waltzek - May 12, 2015.

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Summary:

The 1st caller is concerned by the inflation / deflation debate.

Our host challenges the deflationist rhetoric, noting that the dollar rally is insufficient evidence of deflation.

Dollar strength represents a flight away from the euro currency alternative in anticipation of an imminent Greek default - the US dollar is simply the least sick currency in the ward.

Deflationists have confused deflation (a decrease in the money supply) with disinflation (a decrease in the rate of inflation).

As illustrated by Figure 1.1., in 2008 liquidity poured into the system, funds were reinvested by money center banks and key corporations in their own shares (buybacks / Treasury stock), sending the equities indexes higher while reducing the number of shares outstanding, a two-staged rocket propelling stocks into the exosphere.

Takeaway point: the so called economic miracle or recovery required a five fold increase in the Fed's balance sheet from 2009

Given the near certainty of a rate hike by September / December of this year, the market bubble could crater despite trillions of dollars in support - directing the Mt. St. Helens of equity / paper capital to undervalued safe havens, such as gold and silver.

After a year long consolidation, money printing is near the zenith, poised for a new break out - consolidation theory suggests at least a 50% increase in Fed debt to $6.5 trillion over the next two years.

The Fed liquidity represents a giant options put of financial protection.

Prediction: until the Fed money printing bonanza halts, expect the party on Wall Street to persist.

The host answers questions from caller John and email messages from several friends of the show, including Vidya and Patrick.

The 1st caller is concerned by the inflation / deflation debate. Our host challenges the deflationist rhetoric, noting that the dollar rally is insufficient evidence of deflation. On the contrary, dollar strength represents a flight away from the euro-currency alternative in anticipation of an imminent Greek default - the US dollar is simply the least sick currency in the ward. Deflationists have confused deflation (a decrease in the money supply) with disinflation (a decrease in the rate of inflation). The subtle nuance between deflation and disinflation can be visualized by imagining a car traveling along a flat desert road. As a mountain pass approaches, if the driver keeps the peddle in the same position as the car ascends the mountain, the pace of the vehicle will slow and eventually come to a halt. This represents disinflation. Just as the car slows but keeps moving forward inflation remains, but at a slower growth rate. Conversely, if deflation were truly present, the car would stop on the mountain road and then reverse back down the hill. This is not yet evident in the money supply (inflation proxy) compiled by the St. Louis Fed and Shadowstats.com (see Figure 1.1.).

Figure 1.1. US Monetary Base (adjusted - St. Louis Fed)

Note: The graph is courtesy of the St. Louis Fed web page.

As illustrated in Figure 1.1., the money supply growth rate was stable until the last recession. But around 2008 the figure went wild, coinciding with the domestic stock market bull-run of 2009-2015. As liquidity poured into the system, funds were reinvested by money center banks and key corporations in their own shares (buybacks / Treasury stock), sending the equities indexes higher while reducing the number of shares outstanding, which amounts to a two-staged rocket: the buybacks increased demand and reduced supply, sending stocks barreling into the exosphere. KEY POINT: the so called economic miracle or recovery required a five fold increase in the Fed's balance sheet since 2009. The reason that the cost of goods and services, housing, oil etc. have not skyrocketed is that the $4+ trillion dollars are held primarily in US paper assets, such as stocks / bonds, holding the inflation genie is check. Nevertheless, with a rate hike a near certainty by September / December 2015, the market bubble could crater, even with the trillions of dollars worth of support. Once the edifice starts to crumble, the Mt. St. Helens of equity / paper capital will search for undervalued safe havens, like gold and silver. After a year long consolidation, the money printing pattern is at the top of the range and poised for a new break out - consolidation theory suggests an increase of at least $6.5 trillion in total over the next two years. So why is housing stabilizing; why are share prices staging a dot.com like revival; and why are big institutions shunning safe haven assets? Who needs a safe haven when every investor has a safety net above the high wire, i.e., The Fed. The Fed has offered the market a giant options-put of protection. Prediction: until the Fed money printing bonanza halts, expect the party on Wall Street to continue, but at a frightening cost. The aftermath could mark the end of the global financial system. The further Fed officials extend the day of reckoning, the greater the suffering of the middle and working classes. The host answers questions from caller John and email messages from several folks, including Vidya and Patrick.

 

Peter Eliades & Chris Waltzek - May 7, 2015.

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Summary:

According to Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, a particular angle of ascent or slope has lead to a market zenith for nearly 14 consecutive years.
He presents the precise slope angle and a simple means to calculate the trendline (slope = 68.3 / 238 days = 0.28584) for virtually any forecasting chart.
Since 2002, the market has failed to close over 1.1% beyond the trendline and then subsequently declined sharply.
On Monday, May 4th, the model registered a key stock market top, with the proviso that no construct is perfect.
A market peak of great importance seems imminent.

His work suggests that the potential return in US equities is significantly lower than the potential risk - echoing the sentiments of previous guests, such as Dr. Burton Malkiel.

Our guest suggests Hussman Funds, a free website with market commentary.

Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, presents an intriguing scientific discovery - his work has uncovered a formula that appears to govern financial market mechanics, in particular, the US equities market. According to the findings, a particular angle of ascent or slope has lead to a market zenith for nearly 14 consecutive years. He presents the precise slope angle and a simple means to calculate the trendline (slope = 68.3 / 238 days = 0.28584) for virtually any forecasting chart. Since 2002, the market has failed to close over 1.1% beyond the trendline and then subsequently declined sharply. On Monday, May 4th, the model registered a key stock market top, with the proviso that no construct is perfect. Our guest adds his analysis, noting that a market peak of great importance seems imminent. The driving force behind the phenomenon appears to be the ascent rate, given the current economic dynamics - not to be confused with the rate of change ROC stemming from the calculus based derivative (d/dx) of market prices. Instead, one might imagine a guiding number, such as Phi (2.816), a transcendental figure often used to calculate Fibonacci support / resistance / forecast levels in market prices. Even if the market does not reach a zenith, it is safe to infer from the construct that market price should not extend more than 1.1% above the high price posted on May 4th. Put simply, his work suggests that the potential return is significantly lower than the potential risk, in US equities - echoing the sentiments of previous guests, such as Dr. Burton Malkiel. Our guest suggests Hussman Funds, a free website with market commentary.

 

David Morgan & Chris Waltzek - May 6, 2015.

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The Silver Investor David Morgan views dollar strength as a direct result of capital flight from the EU.
Still, the US dollar is a flawed currency, losing over 95% of its value due to Fed machinations.
The 30 year love affair with US bonds is coming to an end - the coming debt market implosion will direct trillions of dollars into a competing safe haven, gold and silver, tiny markets relative to bonds.
David Morgan says every portfolio requires at least 10% PMs exposure.

Few investors have even this recommended amount. The bottom may be in place.

A final capitulation may not come to pass in the PMs before the onset of the nascent bull market, despite the monthly downtrend.

The Silver Investor David Morgan views dollar strength as a direct result of capital flight from the EU - negative interest rates make the Greenback seem financially solid by comparison. Still, the US dollar is a flawed currency, losing over 95% of its value due to Fed machinations. The 30 year love affair with US bonds is coming to an end - the coming debt market implosion will direct trillions of dollars into a competing safe haven, gold and silver, tiny markets relative to bonds. In the last credit crisis of 2007, the only asset class to fair well was gold, with few exceptions, one more reason why the PMs are solidly valued at current levels. David Morgan says every portfolio requires at least 10% PMs exposure - few investors have even this recommended amount. The bottom may be in place - a final capitulation is not likely in the PMs before the onset of the nascent bull market, despite the monthly downtrend.

 

Jim Rogers & Chris Waltzek - May 5, 2015.

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Hailing from scenic Zurich Switzerland, Jim Rogers outlines his investing plan for 2015.
WTIC appears to be oversold - expect an important bottom this year.
The investing legend plans to increase his stockpile of gold at under $1,000 an ounce.
He favors equities shares from China (largest holding).
Fed officials may feel compelled to make an incremental rate hike or two, to save face given the level of rate hike rhetoric.
Nonetheless, such efforts will be in vain, the inevitable day of economic reckoning is imminent.

Hailing from scenic Zurich Switzerland, Jim Rogers outlines his investing plan for 2015. WTIC appears to be oversold - expect an important bottom this year. The investing legend is holding on to his PMs and looking for a capitulation to add to his stockpile of gold and silver. He expects a 50% decline from the bull market zenith, presenting solid gold buying opportunities under $1,000 an ounce. He favors equities shares from China (largest holding) - viewed as a relative value compared with US equities. Fed officials may feel compelled to make an incremental rate hike or two, to save face given the level of rate hike rhetoric. Nonetheless, such efforts will be in vain, the inevitable day of economic reckoning is imminent.

 

Peter Schiff & Chris Waltzek - April 30, 2015.

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Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com and the host discuss the latest economic numbers.
Contrary to the official figures the Great Recession never ended - by deflating true inflation figures, economic output only seems strong.
Peter Schiff agrees with John Williams from Shadowstats.com, the national GDP has been negative for almost 15 years when accurately tabulated.
Given the unexpectedly low GDP figure reported on Wednesday, the recession is bordering on a depression.
This is good news for investors as Fed officials are more likely to implement QE4 by the end of 2015, early 2016.
Our guest says the gold market is building a base -the dollar will plunge in spectacular fashion - the next QE installment will send the PMs much higher.

Dollar cost averaging into the metals is the most prudent method, given market uncertainty.

With homeownership rates near 30 year lows and a lack of quality employment, real estate is overpriced, better opportunities will unfold as the recession further develops. Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com and the host discuss the latest economic numbers. Contrary to the official figures the Great Recession never ended - by deflating true inflation figures, economic output only seems strong. Peter Schiff agrees with John Williams from Shadowstats.com, the national GDP has been negative for almost 15 years when accurately tabulated (see chart a few pages below this text). Given the unexpectedly low GDP figure reported on Wednesday, a number that would have been negative without hedonic adjustment, the recession is bordering on a depression. This is good news for investors as Fed officials are more likely to implement QE4 by the end of 2015, early 2016. Our guest says the gold market is building a base and once the threat of a rate hike passes, the dollar will plunge in spectacular fashion - the next QE installment will send the PMs much higher. Peter Schiff agrees with the host that a final selling capitulation could present the best buying opportunity in years for PMs investors. Nevertheless, dollar cost averaging into the metals is the most prudent method, given market uncertainty. With homeownership rates near 30 year lows and a lack of quality employment, real estate is overpriced, better opportunities will unfold as the recession further develops.

 

G. Edward Griffin & Chris Waltzek - April 28, 2015.

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Summary:

G. Edward Griffin serves cuisine for cogitation with a review his magnum opus, The Creature from Jekyll Island, a classic that continues to resonate with readers 22 years later.
He spent 7 years on the project and fortunately decided against discarding the manuscript, now a financial classic approaching it's 40th publishing.
G. Edward Griffin and Dr. Ron Paul have arguably contributed much to the movement for central banking (CB) transparency.
Our guest notes that negative / zero interest rates, rehypothecation, debt crises, etc. should come as little surprise, the global economic system has been gamed by the same cartel that formed the CB system.

G. Edward Griffin serves up cuisine for cogitation with a review his magnum opus, The Creature from Jekyll Island, a classic that continues to resonate with readers 22 years later. He spent 7 years on the project and fortunately decided against discarding the manuscript, now a financial classic approaching it's 40th publishing. Arguably, champions of unadulterated, free market capitalism, G. Edward Griffin and Dr. Ron Paul have contributed much to the movement for transparency in central banking (CB). Nevertheless, the current pseudo-capitalist framework is based on a fata morgana, negative / zero interest rates, rehypothecation, debt crises, etc. The global economic system has been gamed by the same cartel who formed the CB system. Given that most temporal power (worldly) stems from wealth, including military / political / corporate, the banking cartel wields enormous influence. The bulk of Americans are blissfully unaware that the system has been hijacked by a cabal with a nefarious agenda. Ultimately, the system will implode, which according to our guest explains the proliferation of FEMA camps designed to prepare the nation for martial law and to reeducate dissidents, formerly known as patriots, in 1776.

 

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