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Bob Hoye & Chris Waltzek - May 23, 2015.

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Summary

  • Chris welcomes Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors who makes investing entertaining.
  • His research indicates the 100 year fiat monetary experiment in fiat money has failed, which could lead to an epic economic earthquake
  • The discussion includes a compelling forward indicator of gold price, the implied volatility (IV) of the gold etf (GLD) options.
  • When the out-of-the-money IV (blue line) is higher then the, in-the-money IV (white line), a bull markets persists (Figure 1.1.).
  • A new cyclical bull market could be unfolding in the precious metals sector.

Chris welcomes Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors who makes investing entertaining, by applying decades of market financial / economic study and experience to the discussion. His research indicates the 100 year fiat monetary experiment has failed, which could lead to an epic economic earthquake, sending shockwaves reverberating worldwide. The discussion includes a compelling forward indicator of gold price, the implied volatility (IV) of the gold etf (GLD) options: the IV of the strike price just out of the money and just in the money. When the out-of-the-money IV (blue line) is higher then the, in-the-money IV (white line), a bull markets persists (Figure 1.1.). Bob Hoye's analysis confirms that a new cyclical bull market could be unfolding in the precious metals sector.

Figure 1.1. Gold Market Indicator - Implied Volatility on Options

Note: Courtesy of Bloomberg.com

 

Peter Grandich & Chris Waltzek - May 19, 2016.

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Summary

  • Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company rejoins the show with positive comments on the PMs and crude oil, markets.
  • Our guest expects gold to reach $1,400-$1,500 in 2016.
  • Contrarian investors may continue to benefit from nearly universal bearishness - investors are gun-shy, presenting buying opportunities.
  • Trouble in the US hedge fund industry could put downward pressure on the stock indexes.
  • The remarkable share recovery since 2009 is a direct result of hedge fund related buying and dovish Fed policies.
  • Officials may be boxed into a corner, forced to implement QE 4 or an alternative machination to hold together the shaky, economic house-of-cards.

Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company rejoins the show with positive comments on the PMs and crude oil, markets. Contrarian investors may continue to benefit from nearly universal bearishness - investors are gun-shy, having emptied their investment portfolios, presenting buying opportunities in the discounted PMs / oil shares. Our guest expects gold to reach $1,400-$1,500 in 2016. In addition, trouble in the US hedge fund industry could put downward pressure on the stock indexes. The remarkable share recovery since 2009 is a direct result of hedge fund related buying and dovish Fed policies. However, officials may be boxed into a corner, forced to implement QE 4 or an alternative machination to hold together the shaky, economic house-of-cards.

 

Ralph Acampora & Chris Waltzek - May 19, 2015.

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Note: Image courtesy of CNBC.

Summary

  • Leading Wall Street technician, Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management returns to the show with an overview of key support levels in the markets.
  • Ralph Acampora agrees with several recent guests that gold and silver have seen their lows - selloffs present buying opportunities.
  • The yearlong trading range in US equities includes wide swings of 2,000 points in the Dow Jones Industrials.
  • The Eurozone is grappling with Grexit issues, which is stifling economic growth.
  • Our guest assures listeners that both domestic and EU equities markets will likely rebound from current levels.
  • US stocks could reach new zeniths this year.
  • The technical position of crude oil continues to improve.
  • A strongly bullish head and shoulders pattern formation suggests much higher prices for the energy sector in 2016.

Leading Wall Street technician, Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management returns to the show with an overview of key support levels in the markets. The yearlong trading range in US equities includes wide swings of 2,000 points in the Dow Jones Industrials, due in part to rate hike indecision on the part of policymakers as well as uncertainty over the upcoming November election. Meanwhile, the Eurozone is grappling with Grexit issues, which is stifling economic growth. Nevertheless, our guest assures listeners that both domestic and EU equities markets will likely rebound from current levels; US stocks could reach new zeniths this year. Ralph Acampora agrees with several recent guests that gold and silver have seen their lows; selloffs present buying opportunities to increase portfolio exposure. The technical position of crude oil continues to improve with a strongly bullish head and shoulders pattern formation suggesting much higher prices for the energy sector in 2016.

 

Jordan Roy-Byrne & Chris Waltzek - May 13, 2016.

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Summary

  • Jordan Roy-Byrne of The Daily Gold, makes his show debut, offering his book free to our listeners.
  • His work suggests the PMs sector has found support, the low is in place and a nascent bull market could be emerging.
  • The gold shares tend to lead the charge in sustainable rallies, which is occurring in 2016.
  • Our guest finds the recent PMs shares bottom comparable to the end of the 1942 NYSE low, following the Great Depression.
  • Selloffs in the PMs sector represent buying opportunities amid the new uptrend.
  • Chasing the sector after such an advance is inadvisable, suggesting instead to remain patient for solid buying opportunities to emerge later in 2016.
  • The discussion includes the importance for the gold safe haven amid economic uncertainty, such as in Venezuela, with triple digit inflation.
  • Gold in terms of the Venezuelan Peso has skyrocketed, underscoring to investors worldwide the importance of protecting purchasing power.
  • Jordan offers a stock candidate, Klondex Mines (KLDX) a gold producer with mines in the US and Canada.
  • The company CEO is so confident in the prospects of his firm, he reportedly invested 95% of his personal fortune in the shares.
  • Gold and silver bullion remain the ideal bedrock insurance policy for every diversified portfolio.
  • Junior mines represent an opportunity to boost overall expected return with a fractional investment.

Jordan Roy-Byrne of The Daily Gold, makes his show debut, offering his book free to our listeners. His work suggests the PMs sector has found support, the low is in place and a nascent bull market could be emerging. The gold shares tend to lead the charge in sustainable rallies, which is occurring in 2016. Our guest finds the recent PMs shares bottom comparable to the end of the 1942 NYSE low, following the Great Depression. The guest and host concur; selloffs in the PMs sector represent buying opportunities amid the new uptrend. Nonetheless, both note that chasing the sector after such an advance is inadvisable, suggesting instead to remain patient for solid buying opportunities to emerge later in 2016. The discussion includes the importance for the gold safe haven amid economic uncertainty, such as in Venezuela, with triple digit inflation making basic necessities scarce and joblessness rampant. Gold in terms of the Venezuelan Peso has skyrocketed, underscoring to investors worldwide the importance of protecting purchasing power. Jordan offers a stock candidate, Klondex Mines (KLDX) a gold producer with mines in the US and Canada; the company CEO is so confident in the prospects of his firm, he reportedly invested 95% of his personal fortune in the shares. Gold and silver bullion remain the ideal bedrock insurance policy for every diversified portfolio, while junior mines represent an opportunity to boost overall expected return with a fractional investment.

 

David Gurwitz & Chris Waltzek - May 12, 2016.

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Summary

  • David Gurwitz, Managing Director at Nenner Research returns to the show.

  • David and his business partner Dr. Charles Nenner apply their mathematical constructs to the market to glean information about future price levels.

  • Through cycles analysis of market time-series and a target algorithm, their team of analysts make forecasts among a variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds and currencies (Yen, Euro, Canadian and the US dollar).

  • They offer a free 1 month trial to their newsletter to Goldseek.com Radio listeners.

  • Subscribers receive new editions each Mon., Wed. and Fri, plus charts and global macro analysis each Sunday.

  • Their work suggests a new bull market is underway in the precious metals sector, with current gold support at $1,190.

  • If $1,500 is surpassed, the bull market could culminate with a $2,000+ gold price in the coming years.

  • Their silver forecast is just as encouraging for PMs aficionados; once AG surpasses $20 per ounce, the next targets are $25, $30 and even $49.

  • Black gold appears to have found a floor, which could double from the bear market lows, to as high as $56 per barrel this summer.

David Gurwitz, Managing Director at Nenner Research returns to the show; David and his business partner Dr. Charles Nenner apply their mathematical constructs to the market to glean information about future price levels. Through cycles analysis of market time-series and a target algorithm, their team of analysts make forecasts among a variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds and currencies (Yen, Euro, Canadian and the US dollar). They offer a free 1 month trial to their newsletter to Goldseek.com Radio listeners. Subscribers receive new editions each Mon., Wed. and Fri, plus charts and global macro analysis each Sunday. Their work suggests a new bull market is underway in the precious metals sector, with current gold support at $1,190. If $1,500 is surpassed, the bull market could culminate with a $2,000+ gold price in the coming years. Their silver forecast is just as encouraging for PMs aficionados; once AG surpasses $20 per ounce, the next targets are $25, $30 and even $49, the former bull market zenith of 2011. After successfully predicting the top of the last crude oil advance, near $147, similar to the yellow metal, Nenner Research and the show host concur that black gold appears to have found a floor, which could double from the bear market lows, to as high as $56 per barrel this summer.

 

 

 

Arch Crawford & Chris Waltzek - May 5, 2016.

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Summary

  • Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives showcases his investing methods that he's honed over forty years in the markets.
  • His mentor Bob Farrell guided Arch during his tenure at Merrill Lynch.
  • Bob Farrell's investing rules are available online: 10 rules of technical investing success.
  • For the first time in 5 years, gold is making higher highs and higher lows, a solid sign of recovery.
  • If the yellow metal holds $1,280, "Buy with both hands," according to his latest newsletter.
  • Regarding US shares, the "Sell in May and walk away," theme may persist in 2016, making the overvalued indexes more attractive in October / November.

Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives showcases his investing methods that he's honed over forty years in the markets, including the influence of his mentor Bob Farrell during his tenure at Merrill Lynch. Bob Farrell's investing rules are available online: 10 rules of technical investing success. For the first time in 5 years, gold is making higher highs and higher lows, a solid sign of recovery. If the yellow metal holds $1,280, "Buy with both hands," according to his latest newsletter. The duo discuss great market wizards of the past, such as W.D. Gann, son of a Baptist minister, born into poverty with 10 siblings in rural Texas, who amassed an astounding $50 million fortune entirely through investing, approximately $1 billion when adjusted for inflation. Regarding US shares, the, "Sell in May and walk away," theme may persist in 2016, making the overvalued indexes more attractive in October / November.

 

Louis Navellier & Chris Waltzek - May 4, 2016.

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Summary

  • Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, returns to the show with must hear market commentary.
  • The gold bullion aficionado prefers real money over currency, which carries a negative interest rate.
  • The precious metals will remain essential core holdings for every investment portfolio.
  • He recommends that investors follow the steps he's taking to insure his personal portfolio, by increasing their allocation of gold and PMs shares.
  • The perma-bull is less sanguine on US equities, amid sagging sales / earnings news.
  • While the major indexes tread water, many top flying blue chips are showing signs of distress.
  • Although small-cap stocks are red hot, much of the excitement is due to low floats amid a short-covering rally.
  • Stocks with solid sales figures and low P/E ratios relative to the S&P present opportunities, such as Facebook (FB) and CostCo (COST).
  • The S&P 500 dividend yield is higher than the less risky 10-year Treasury Bill, suggesting that stocks are undervalued relative to bonds, a rare indication of underlying strength.

Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, returns to the show with must hear market commentary. The gold bullion aficionado prefers real money over currency, which carries a negative interest rate. The precious metals will remain essential core holdings for every investment portfolio, as long as central bankers continue to follow their modus operandi of monetary debasement, worldwide. He recommends that investors follow the steps he's taking to insure his personal portfolio, by increasing their allocation of gold and PMs shares. The perma-bull is less sanguine on US equities, amid sagging sales / earnings news. While the major indexes tread water, many top flying blue chips are showing signs of distress. Although small-cap stocks are red hot, much of the excitement is due to low floats amid a short-covering rally. Stocks with solid sales figures and low P/E ratios relative to the S&P present opportunities, such as Facebook (FB) and CostCo (COST). In addition, the S&P 500 dividend yield is higher than the less risky 10-year Treasury Bill, suggesting that stocks are undervalued relative to bonds, a rare indication of underlying strength.

 

 

Bill Murphy & Chris Waltzek - April 29, 2016.

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Recap.

  • Bill Murphy from GATA.org returns with encouraging comments on the PMs sector, in particular his "Texas Hedging Scenario."
  • The smart money is simultaneously long silver futures and bullion, instead of the more typical physical hedging arrangement.
  • The net impact suggests the big players, such as the commercials who are heavily short amid dwindling bullion supply, could trigger a force majeure.
  • The remarkable resiliency following each selloff suggests evidence of a sustainable rally.
  • The discussion includes comments from Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver.
  • The respected silver market executive was contacted by a major electronics manufacturer, seeking to replenish their dwindling stockpile of silver bullion.
  • If the predictions of CEO Neumeyer come to pass, the price of silver will make a zenith over $100 per ounce.
  • Bill Murphy adds that the yellow metal is trading at half of the fundamental value, representing an irresistible bargain for metals-minded aficionados.

Bill Murphy from GATA.org returns with encouraging comments on the PMs sector, in particular his "Texas Hedging Scenario," where the smart money is simultaneously long silver futures and silver bullion, instead of the more typical physical hedging arrangement. The net impact suggests the big players, such as the commercials who are heavily short amid dwindling bullion supply, could default, resulting in a silver market force majeure. Furthermore, the remarkable resiliency following each selloff is de facto evidence of a sustainable rally. The discussion includes comments from Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver. According to one media report, the respected silver market executive was contacted by a major electronics manufacturer, seeking to replenish their dwindling stockpile of silver bullion. If the predictions of CEO Neumeyer come to pass, the price of silver will make a zenith over $100 per ounce. Bill Murphy adds his technical analysis, which suggests that the yellow metal is trading at half of the fundamental value, representing an irresistible bargain for metals-minded aficionados.

 

Monty Guild & Chris Waltzek - April 28, 2016.

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Summary

  • Chris welcomes back Monty Guild of Guild Investment who sees solid signs in the commodities markets, in particular gold and crude oil.
  • Guild Investment is bullish on both sectors, due in part to expectations of future dollar weakness.
  • Their long-term viewpoint on gold is solidly bullish due to the need to payoff global debts through further currency debasement.
  • The massive economic engines of India and China will continue to absorb dwindling precious metals supply.
  • He expects oil and gold shares to benefit from the lower dollar theme. Brazil, Russia, and Canada are favorite investment nations.
  • The continuing economic theme of negative interest rates / QE is accelerating in Japan, amid unfavorable demographics.
  • Our guest is convinced that the failure of EU banks to follow their US colleagues and recapitalize following the 2008 economic emergency, could spark a new 2007-2008 style Credit Crisis in the next few years.
  • His finding is corroborated by friend of the show Boston University professor, Laurence Kotlikoff - the true domestic debt load is approaching $220 trillion.
  • A favorite equity includes biopharmaceutical Gilead Sciences (GILD).
  • Easy access to home loans in the US combined with the trend of immigration will continue to flood the real estate sector with capital.
  • For safety minded investors, Australia, Canada and the US are top on the Guild list of friendly nations, thanks to solid legal and accounting policies.

Chris welcomes back Monty Guild of Guild Investment who sees solid signs in the commodities markets, in particular gold and crude oil. Guild Investment is bullish on both sectors, due in part to expectations of future dollar weakness. Their long-term viewpoint on gold is solidly bullish due to the need to payoff global debts through further currency debasement. The massive economic engines of India and China will continue to absorb dwindling precious metals supply, as investors scramble for the safe haven investment class. He expects oil and gold shares to benefit from the lower dollar theme. Brazil, Russia, and Canada are favorite investment nations: Canada is flush with gold, oil and timber; Russian has oil and raw minerals; Brazil benefits from soybean production and base metals as well as oil, as seen in Petrobras. The continuing economic theme of negative interest rates / QE is accelerating in Japan, where policymakers are attempting to stimulate sagging economic conditions amid unfavorable demographics. Our guest is convinced that the failure of EU banks to follow their US colleagues and recapitalize following the 2008 economic emergency, could spark a new 2007-2008 style Credit Crisis in the next few years. His finding is corroborated by friend of the show Boston University professor, Laurence Kotlikoff, who notes that the true domestic debt load is approaching $220 trillion dollars, significantly more than the combined global economic output, on an annual basis. Regarding US shares, a favorite equity includes biopharmaceutical Gilead Sciences (GILD). Easy access to home loans in the US combined with the trend of immigration will continue to flood the real estate sector with capital, making it a solid investment. For safety minded investors, Australia, Canada and the US are top on the Guild list of friendly nations, thanks to solid legal and accounting policies.

 

Bob Hoye & Chris Waltzek - April 21, 2015.

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Recap.

  • Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors.
  • Bob outlines his latest forecasts for gold, silver their shares and the US stock indexes.
  • Just as the emotions of fear (nadirs) and greed (zeniths) still reign in the financial markets, little has changed in hundreds of years of monetary policy.
  • As it is today, so it was even in antiquity - policymakers debased their currencies, until all that remained was the base metal content.
  • The outcome is always the same, each nation / empire entered a protracted period of decline.
  • The discussion turns to the Reuters report, regarding the DB financial institution's confession of long-term silver fixing.
  • The major banker agreed to reveal several of its conspirator's in a settlement.
  • Bob Hoye's work indicates that during deflationary Great Crashes, since the 1600's, 80% of the time gold (real money) has yielded stunning returns.

Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors. Bob outlines his latest forecasts for gold, silver their shares and the US stock indexes. Just as the emotions of fear (nadirs) and greed (zeniths) still reign in the financial markets, little has changed in hundreds of years regarding monetary policy. As it is today, so it was even in antiquity - policymakers debased their currencies, until all that remained was the base metal content. The outcome is always the same, each nation / empire entered a protracted period of decline. The discussion turns to the Reuters report, regarding the DB financial institution's confession of precious metals market manipulation including long-term silver fixing. The major banker agreed to reveal several of its conspirator's in a settlement. Bob Hoye's work indicates that during deflationary Great Crashes, since the 1600's, 80% of the time gold (real money) has yielded stunning portfolio returns, as well as PMs mines, which are typically profitable during such troubled periods.

 

Peter Grandich & Chris Waltzek - April 19, 2016.

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Summary

  • Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company rejoins the show with comments on US equities and the Precious Metals sector.
  • The precious metals sector could continue to shine this year amid increased global geopolitical tensions, as well as improved demand and limited supply.
  • Years of pessimism have increased the likelihood of solid gains in 2016. This fact is most evident from a technical perspective.
  • Each wave of selling is followed by an even stronger rally, suggestive that sellers have exhausted themselves, a plus for the bulls.
  • The guest / host agree that portfolio diversification with a heavier weight on the PMs sector is advisable.
  • He views the US shares market as somewhat ambiguities and bifurcated.
  • While corporate earnings have slowed, the engine of higher share prices, investors have discounted the odds of future Fed rate hikes.
  • Monetary policies are the central reason why US shares continue to tread water. By propping up economic conditions with near zero rates and buying up toxic debt, the slight of hands artificially boost GDP.
  • As a result, the pseudo-recovery has put the domestic economy in jeopardy.
Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company rejoins the show with comments on US equities and the Precious Metals sector. He views the US shares market as somewhat ambiguities and bifurcated. While corporate earnings have slowed, the engine of higher share prices, investors have discounted the odds of future Fed rate hikes, which lowers corporate debt issues, viewed as a positive by bullish investors. Put differently, monetary policies are the central reason why US shares continue to tread water. Nevertheless, by propping up economic conditions with near zero rates and buying up toxic debt, the slight of hands artificially boost GDP. As a result, the pseudo-recovery has put the domestic economy in jeopardy. Meanwhile, the precious metals sector could continue to shine this year amid increased global geopolitical tensions, as well as improved demand and limited supply. Years of pessimism have increased the likelihood of solid gains in 2016. This fact is most evident from a technical perspective; each selling episode is followed by an even stronger rally, suggestive that sellers have exhausted themselves and the pendulum has swung back in favor of long positions, particularly if gold closes solidly above $1,300. The guest / host agree that portfolio diversification with a heavier weight on the PMs sector is advisable.

 

 

 

Bill Murphy & Chris Waltzek - April 7, 2016.

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Recap:

  • Bill Murphy from GATA.org returns to the show with comments on the national gold stockpile.
  • A growing cadre of researchers note that gold swap arrangements make deciphering the domestic a daunting task, so reserves are likely overstated.
  • Wise BRIC central banks are accumulating the metal at new records, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), 480 tons of gold was purchased.
  • Key takeaway point: once the gold enters their vaults, the ounces essentially evaporate from the market.
  • Gold bears can no longer claim that the monetary metal carries zero interest, gold and silver both pay substantial interest by avoiding interest payments.
  • Like John Embry, Bill Murphy expects a big shift in investor tastes, making the unloved silver sector the de facto loved asset class du jour.
  • His work indicates a 100:1 risk to reward ratio in silver, $1-$2 risk on the downside with at least $100 on the upside.
  • Naked short-selling in the highly illiquid markets helping send PMs shares to outperform the underlying metals, as shorts scramble to cover.

Bill Murphy from GATA.org returns to the show with comments on the national gold stockpile. Bill Murphy agrees with Jim Rickards and a growing cadre of researchers, that gold swap arrangements make deciphering the domestic a daunting task, so reserves are likely overstated, threatening dollar hegemony. However, wise BRIC central banks are accumulating the metal at new records, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), 480 tons of gold were purchased by monetary authorities last year, the second largest annual total on record. A key takeaway point: once the gold enters their vaults, the ounces essentially evaporate from the market. Case in point, China has strict laws on gold exports. Moreover, now that rates have entered negative territory in several key money centers worldwide, the gold bears can no longer claim that the monetary metal carries zero interest, i.e., in a negative rate environment, gold and silver both pay substantial interest by avoiding interest payments. Like John Embry, Bill Murphy expects a big shift in investor tastes, making the unloved silver sector the de facto loved asset class du jour. His work indicates a 100:1 risk to reward ratio in silver, $1-$2 risk on the downside with at least $100 on the upside. In addition, naked short-sellers are now buying back shares in highly illiquid markets, putting the price up on themselves, which may explain one aspect of the startlingly explosive move in the PMs shares, relative to the underlying metals.

 

John Embry & Chris Waltzek - April 6, 2016.

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Abstract:

  • Chris welcomes back, John Embry, Senior Strategist at Sprott Asset Management.
  • He shares his outlook on the precious metals sector.
  • News that gold was higher by 16% in the first quarter unnerved the central bank cartel, sending shockwaves through their ranks.
  • US equities appear wildly overvalued, despite constant support from government officials.
  • He cautions investors on US stocks - new purchases may not be warranted. Nevertheless, the PMs equities indexes HUI / XAU remain robust.
  • The PMs shares tend to lead the underlying PMs higher.
  • While the 80% advance in the HUI may seem excessive, the covering of billions of 'naked' shares, could support higher prices.
  • The retail market may not have even begun to dip its collective toe into the proverbial marketplace, which could extend the impressive rally.
  • While gold is destined for a several fold price explosion in the coming years, silver represents the best bargain.
  • The gold : silver ratio could easily drop from 80:1 to 20:1 sending silver to $60 per ounce without any change in the gold price.

Chris welcomes back, John Embry, Senior Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, - he shares his outlook on the precious metals sector. News that gold was higher by 16% in the first quarter unnerved the central bank cartel, sending shockwaves through their ranks. On the contrary, US equities appear wildly overvalued, despite constant support from government officials. He cautions investors on US stocks - new purchases may not be warranted. Nevertheless, the PMs equities indexes HUI / XAU remain robust; the PMs shares tend to lead the underlying PMs higher. While the 80% advance in the HUI may seem excessive, the covering of billions of 'naked' shares, shares created out of thin air by big institutions, could support higher prices. The retail market may not have even begun to dip its collective toe into the proverbial marketplace, which could extend the impressive rally over the course of the next few years. While gold is destined for a several fold price explosion in the coming years, silver represents the best bargain. The gold : silver ratio could easily drop from 80:1 to 20:1 sending silver to $60 per ounce without any change in the gold price. John Embry insists that

 

 

Jim Rogers & Chris Waltzek - March 31, 2016.

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Summary

  • Chris welcomes back Jim Rogers from his Singapore office - he notes twice as many US stocks were down in 2015 as up, a bearish market breadth indication.

  • The primary reason why the equities indexes remain aloft is the enormous debt burden added to the balance sheets of the Fed, since 2008.

  • But unlike 2008, 2000, 1987 and even 1929, the US is now the largest debtor nation in the world, putting the country at elevated risk of default.

  • This anomaly presents the most precarious economic quagmire in national history.

  • He's currently long the US dollar (from much lower levels), the Yuan, Chinese stocks, short US shares, long agricultural futures and holding on tightly to gold / silver.

  • Poised like a praying mantis, the ever vigilant investor is anticipating the right opportunity to increase his gold / silver exposure.
  • With an established knack for identifying profit opportunities outside the scope of the mainstream media he recently developed a penchant for undervalued Russian bonds and rubles.
  • Unlike the West, Russia is not a debtor nation but a creditor, for instance, Cuba owes Russia $25 billion as of 2013 figures.

     

Chris welcomes back Jim Rogers from his Singapore office - he notes twice as many US stocks were down in 2015 as up, a bearish market breadth indication. The primary reason why the equities indexes remain aloft is the enormous debt burden added to the balance sheets of the Fed, BOJ, EU, BOE, PBoC since 2008. But unlike 2008, 2000, 1987 and even 1929, the US is now the largest debtor nation in the world, putting the country at elevated risk of default. Our guest thinks this presents the most precarious economic quagmire in national history. He's currently long the US dollar (from much lower levels), the Yuan, Chinese stocks, short US shares, long agricultural futures and holding on tightly to gold / silver. Ever the patient investor, like a praying mantis, he is poised to increase his gold / silver exposure. Given the established knack for identifying profit opportunities outside the scope of the mainstream media he has developed a penchant for undervalued bonds and rubles. Unlike the West, Russia is not a debtor nation but a creditor, for instance, Cuba owes Russia $25 billion as of 2013 figures.

 

John Williams & Chris Waltzek - March 30, 2015.
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Summary

  • Economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show with a characteristically non-sanguine stance on the economy.
  • Global QE operations are detrimental, meant only for temporary banking system support, as a result long-term QE operations have caused economic dependence.
  • The low rate methodology is particularly deleterious for retiree's, many of whom
  • House loans are challenging to procure; 25% of existing house sales are cash transactions, indicating nervousness on the part of lenders.
  • Our guest expects Fed policymakers to revamp QE operations to prevent a systemic collapse in the US dollar.
  • Anything to avoid a Great Deflation - sending inflation to much higher levels.
  • The action fails to address the Fiscal spending / monetary debt issues. John Williams favors physical bullion, gold / silver sovereign coins over bullion bars.
  • The host / guest agree that as the dollar slide begins in earnest, WTIC, crude oil prices will rebound in spectacular fashion.
  • When the unscrupulous share buyback effects are removed from US stock indexes, clearly market momentum has stalled.
  • The US economy never truly recovered from the 2008 Great Recession and could roll over into a similar scenario.
  • The host notes that the US has been in a recession since the year 2000, when the GDP is properly adjusted for inflation - the guest responds that the current economic quagmire is comparable to the Great Depression (Figure 1.1.).
  • The reason why it has not been recognized by the mainline media as a Great Depression, is due to government subsidies.
  • Without such programs, lines would form miles long around national soup kitchens.
  • John Williams views gold and silver as the ultimate investment portfolio hedging components - essential balancing mechanisms.
  • Our guest not only joins the chorus of leading financial pundits, but projects the voice above them all, calling for $100,000-$1,000,000 per ounce gold.

     

Economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show with a characteristically non-sanguine stance on the economy. Global QE operations are detrimental, meant only for temporary banking system support. Long-term QE operations have caused economic dependence. The low rate methodology is particularly deleterious to retiree's, many of whom require reasonable interest rates for a well-deserved retirement, especially given the substantial empirical inflation in consumer goods. House loans are challenging, 25% of existing house sales are cash transactions, indicating nervousness on the part of lenders as well as borrowers. Our guest expects Fed policymakers to revamp QE operations to prevent a systemic collapse in the US dollar, anything to avoid a Great Deflation - sending inflation to much higher levels. Nevertheless, the action fails to address the Fiscal spending / monetary debt issues. John Williams favors physical bullion, gold / silver sovereign coins over bullion bars, to facilitate ease of sale when needed. The host / guest agree that as the dollar slide begins in earnest, WTIC, crude oil prices will rebound in spectacular fashion. In addition, when the unscrupulous share buyback effects are removed from US stock indexes, the market momentum has stalled. Case in point, the US economy never truly recovered from the 2008 Great Recession and could not be rolling over into a similar scenario. The host notes that the US has been in a recession since the year 2000, when the GDP is properly adjusted for inflation - the guest responds that the current economic quagmire is comparable to the Great Depression (Figure 1.1.). The reason why it has not been recognized by the mainline media as a Great Depression, is due to government subsidies, such as the 50 million food stamp debit cards. Without such programs, lines would form miles long around national soup kitchens. John Williams views gold and silver as the ultimate investment portfolio hedging components - essential balancing mechanisms. Our guest not only joins the chorus of leading financial pundits, but projects the voice above them all, calling for $100,000-$1,000,000 per ounce gold as a reality when the US dollar collapse is complete.

 

Figure 1.1. Dallas Manufacturing Index (Leading Economic Indicator)

Note: Data / graphs courtesy of ycharts.com.

 

 

 

Jim Rogers & Chris Waltzek - January 6, 2016.

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Summary

  • Chris welcomes back Jim Rogers from his Singapore office, who says a financial crisis is imminent.
  • His largest currency position remains the US dollar, which will likely rally into a bubble which eventually implodes in spectacular fashion.
  • Although not a safe haven, the US dollar seems impervious relative to most global currencies, for the moment.
  • He continues to monitor the gold market for signs of capitulation, to add to his stockpile.
  • Russian and Chinese firms present appealing investment opportunities.
  • Jim Rogers holds short positions in US shares, in anticipation of further volatility on the heels of the Fed rate hikes.
  • The zinc market is off over 90%, making ETF shares (ZINC) a potential turn around candidate in the coming weeks / months / years.

Chris welcomes back Jim Rogers from his Singapore office, who says a financial crisis is imminent. His largest currency position remains the US dollar, which will likely rally into a bubble which eventually implodes in spectacular fashion. Although not a safe haven, the US dollar seems impervious relative to most global currencies, for the moment. He continues to monitor the gold market for signs of capitulation, to add to his stockpile. Russian and Chinese firms present appealing investment opportunities. Jim Rogers holds short positions in US shares, in anticipation of further volatility on the heels of the Fed rate hikes and more hikes expected in the new year. If a meaningful correction does not come to pass and shares blast to new records perhaps doubling from current levels as top analysts have forecasted, the final economic endgame could follow, leading to a crisis of epic proportions. The guest takes interest in a contrarian investment - the zinc market is off over 90%, making ETF shares (ZINC) a potential turn around candidate in the coming weeks / months / years.

 

Bob Hoye & Chris Waltzek - March 25, 2015.

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Recap.

  • Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors.
  • Our guest says a new cyclical PMs bull market is underway - he favors the PMs shares. US dollar weakness may indicate a top is in place.
  • The FOMC has lost control of the economy, backpedaling on rate hikes and returning to a more dovish stance.
  • Seasonal factors are positive for both commodities and the energy sector. The host suggests increasing investment portfolio weighting in the PMs and energy sectors.

     

 

 

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