As
a key negotiator in the 1998 LTCM bailout and
advisor to the DoD / CIA / Los Alamos, James
Rickards outlines sophisticated analytical models.
Bayes'
Theorem, a conditional analysis method facilitates
forecasting the tipping point / phase transition
of highly complex systems.
The
global financial system nearly imploded in 1998,
then again in 2008; his models suggest that
by 2018 a new financial fiasco could materialize.
The
US Fed increased the balance sheet from $800
billion to $4 trillion since 2009 while holding
rates near zero for 6 years without normalizing.
The
operations exposed the world's most important
CB vulnerable to a new economic meltdown.
Once
the inevitable implosion begins in earnest,
our guest expects the IMF, the lender of last
resort to distribute its own currency, SDRs.
Similar
to Kurt Vonnegut's epic SciFi novel, Cat's Cradle
(free
PDF) our guest draws parallels between Ice-9
and the global economic system.
The
global economy could suddenly freeze up, with
startling implications for all 7 billion inhabitants.
The
seasoned lawyer confirms the suspicions of many,
including GATA.org, inadequate bullion exists
to support the 1:100 gold to paper contracts.
James Rickards echoes the thoughts of several
guests, supporting the solid case for $10,000
gold and perhaps much higher.
Policymakers
who believe the gold at Fort Knox / West Point
/ NY Fed is sufficient to sustain the economy
are mistaken.
The
stockpile is likely leveraged 10:1 or even 100:1,
leaving the US Treasury vulnerable to bankruptcy.
China
has plans to eclipse our national gold reserves
via the purchase of 3,000 tons of gold in
the next 2 years, $130 billion, at the current
price level.
Key
takeaway: it is advisable to procure precious
metals and related shares at current levels.
James
Rickards presents an overview of his Meragrim
private placement that uses the cutting
edge AI from IBM's Watson to predict / forecast
essential outcomes in the geopolitical arena
(figure 1.1).
Bob
Hoye of Institutional
Advisors rejoins the show with an update
on the Bitcoin phenomenon.
For
the first time in economic history, the masses
have a chance to grab the reigns of the money
supply, central banks are no longer required.
Elliott
wave analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) should
retrace from the recent $5,000 peak to at least
$2,600.
Still,
the BTC rocketship could continue unabated skyward
to $10,000.
The
PTB will continue to struggle against cryptos
as their system unravels at an increasing pace.
The
Greenback is now jeopardized by the introduction
of a gold backed petrol contract in China.
The
petrol-dollar arrangement of 1974 must now compete
in the East with a petrol-gold-Yuan alternative.
Financial
bubbles are now the new norm, including junk
bonds, US equities, domestic real estate in
Canada and even some cryptocurrencies.
A
few legendary technophiles, such as John
McAfee and Marketwatch.com
are suggesting that Bitcoin could climb to a
peak of at least $500,000.
The
S&P has eclipsed year 2000 bubble levels
by many metrics, including P/E ratios and Bob
Hoye's top indicators.
The
credit spread and yield curve remain positive,
so equities could continue to surprise on the
upside, but the risk offers a meager expected
return.
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Guest
Biographies
Bob
Hoye
Institutional
Investors
With
a degree in geophysics and a number of
fascinating summers in mining exploration,
one winter in "the bush" quickly
led Bob into the financial markets. This
included experience on the trading desk
and in the research department of a large
investment dealer, which led to institutional
stock and bond sales.
Bob's
review of financial history provided the
forecasting models designed to anticipate
significant trend reversals in the sometimes
alarming volatility typical of the transition
from rampant speculation in tangible assets
to fabulous speculation in financial assets.
In
anticipation of the latter opportunity,
a monthly publication for financial institutions
was started in January 1982.
This
competently covered the stock market,
the yield curve, credit spreads as well
as metal and energy prices.
In
1998 the Institutional Advisors website
was started as a forum for unique and
reliable financial research.
James
Rickards is the Editor of
Strategic Intelligence,
a financial newsletter,
and Director of The James
Rickards Project, an inquiry
into the complex dynamics
of geopolitics + global
capital. He is the author
of The New Case for Gold
(April 2016), and two New
York Times best sellers,
The Death of Money (2014),
and Currency Wars (2011)
from Penguin Random House.
He is a portfolio manager,
lawyer, and economist, and
has held senior positions
at Citibank, Long-Term Capital
Management, and Caxton Associates.
In 1998, he was the principal
negotiator of the rescue
of LTCM sponsored by the
Federal Reserve. His clients
include institutional investors
and government directorates.
He
is an Op-Ed contributor
to the Financial Times,
Evening Standard, New York
Times, and Washington Post,
and has been interviewed
on BBC, CNN, NPR, CSPAN,
CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, and
The Wall Street Journal.
Mr. Rickards is a guest
lecturer in globalization
and finance at The Johns
Hopkins University, The
Kellogg School at Northwestern,
and the School of Advanced
International Studies. He
has delivered papers on
risk at Singularity University,
the Applied Physics Laboratory,
and the Los Alamos National
Laboratory. He is an advisor
on capital markets to the
U.S. intelligence community,
and the Office of the Secretary
of Defense, and is on the
Advisory Board of the Center
on Sanctions & Illicit
Finance in Washington DC.
Mr. Rickards holds an LL.M.
(Taxation) from the NYU
School of Law; a J.D. from
the University of Pennsylvania
Law School; an M.A. in international
economics from SAIS, and
a B.A. (with honors) from
Johns Hopkins. He lives
in Connecticut.
Martin
Armstrong & Chris Waltzek Ph.D.
- September 29, 2017.
Andy Schectman &
Chris Waltzek Ph.D. - Sept. 21, 2017.
