Wood discusses the 4 year stock market cycle.
Stocks have been struggling and Tim thinks that
the 4 year cycle will provide a great buying opportunity
by this fall. Tim shares his thoughts on precious
metals as well as equities and tells us where he
thinks they are headed.
shares his views on the gold and silver markets
and tells why he believes gold will climb above
$1,500. Plus Jack Chan takes a technical look at
the first half of todays show we discuss a great
article sent over by Peter from GoldSeek.com, regarding
confiscation and exchange traded funds. We take
a closer look at the new gold and silver ETF's to
determine if they are the safe alternatives to gold
and silver ownership that many believe them to be.
You might be surprised at what we uncover. Next
we look into the Federal Reserves latest money supply
figures to determine just what is really going on
behind all of the smoke and mirrors.
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purpose of this site is to provide investors with
a place where they can obtain truthful, non biased,
factual information about the financial markets. My
primary focus is on the stock market, specifically
the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500,
the Gold market, the Dollar and T-Bonds. The information
presented in this site is based on technical analysis.
It is not based on the Hope and Hype heard by the
so-called mainstream "analysts."
the Summer of 2001 I did a research paper that suggested
with almost certainty we were about to see a major
decline take place in the stock market. Based on history,
my study suggested a 100% probability of a move below
the 1998 4-year cycle lows. This has recently happened
in the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Utility Average,
the Dow Jones Transportation Average, the New York
Composite Index, the Russell 1000 and the Wilshire
5000. In my research paper I said that the Dow Jones
Industrial Average would close below 7,400 in the
Fall of 2002. This documentation was published in
the November 2001 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks
and Commodities Magazine. If you would like a copy
of this article, please make an e-mail request.
July 2001 I said the Dow Jones Industrial Average
would close below 7,400 in the Fall of 2002. Again,
This was published in the November 2001 issue of Technical
Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.
both my April and May 2002 newsletters I warned that
we had a 97% probability, based on history, that the
stock market was about to move below the September
2001 lows. This forecast has obviously proved to be
In the May 2002 newsletter I warned that I felt the
seasonal cycle in the U.S. Dollar had occurred as
well as the 4-year cycle top. I further warned that
based on my studies of cycles we had a 100% probability
of a move below 111 in the U.S. Dollar. This has recently
In the June 2002 newsletter I stated, "we are
about to see the bear market accelerate." This
obviously happened as well.
the July 2002 newsletter I said "If you are still
long stocks I would GET OUT." This was a timely
call as well.
In the October 2002 newsletter I said "Expect
the Bear to get Nasty again as the Dow moves into
the 4-year cycle low, due between November 15, 2002
and January 17, 2003. This low should take the Dow
below 7,400 and most likely into the mid 6000 range!"
got the close below 7,400. October 2002 did mark the
4-year cycle bottom, but the mid 6000 range was not
seen. Because of the lack of technical confirmation
surrounding the October 2002 low, there had been some
question as to whether this really was the 4-year
cycle low. I said back in October 2002 that if this
low did mark the 4-year cycle low, it was the weakest
4-year cycle low on record. I say this because we
did not get the deeply oversold readings that are
normally seen at such important lows. Without these
deeply oversold readings to provide the foundation
for the 2003 rally, it makes the sustainability of
the rally questionable.
I have to ask: Do you know anyone else who had documented
forecasts one year in advance, warning about the sell-off
in the equity markets in 2002? Did your broker or
money manager ever once tell you this was going to
happen? Did the "analysts" on CNBC warn
you? What about the "experts" on Fox or
CNN? I can assure you they did not see this coming.
They do not know where we are going from here and
if they did, they would not tell you!
Long Term Forecast
of record bullishness and manipulative efforts to
keep air in the bubble, the current 4-year cycle has
stretched, but should top with the current advance
in early 2006. Once this top is made, I then look
for the decline into the next 4-year cycle low to
be underway. When this decline begins, it should mark
the beginning of the Phase II decline of this great
bear market. I am using the same statistical methods
to project the coming 4-year cycle low as I did the
2002 low. Should this statistical forecast unfold
as accurately as it did then, then most are assuredly
going to be surprised to say the least.
long term forecast suggests that the Dow should approach
its final bear market lows as the 4-year cycle bottoms
technical studies are based on my knowledge of both
Market Cycles and Dow Theory. My knowledge of cycles
is based on the methods I learned from Walter Bressert.
My knowledge of Dow Theory has come from my studies
of the original works of Charles H. Dow, William Peter
Hamilton, Robert Rhea, E. George Schaefer, Sparta
Fritz Jr, A.M. Shumate, Charles B. Stansbury and Richard
Russell. If you are familiar with these names you
should realize that I believe in the old traditional
methods of market analysis. It is obvious to me that
these are the best tools available to market students
today. Yet, I find that these tools are overlooked
and/or forgotten today when they are most needed.
have found that when combining my methods of Market
Cycle analysis with Dow Theory, the results are astounding.
To give an example of this powerful combination, back
in July 1999 the Dow Jones Industrial Average made
new highs, but they were not confirmed by the Dow
Jones Transportation Average. This was the 1st Dow
Theory warning. In August 1999 the DJIA moved higher
into the next trading cycle top, but still not being
confirmed by the DJTA. This was the second warning.
In September of 1999 the DJIA moved below the previous
trading cycle low (August 1999) thus confirming the
down side action of the DJTA. This was the third Dow
Theory warning. In January 2000 the DJIA pushes even
higher into the weekly cycle top while the DJTA fades.
My methods of Market Cycle analysis then confirmed
the primary bear market signal given by Dow Theory
in February 2000 as the DJIA broke down below the
October 1999 seasonal cycle low.
June of 2001 I did a long term study of the Dow going
back to 1896. This study was an analysis of the 4-year
cycle. As a result of this study I found that based
on the historical characteristics of the 4-year cycle,
the stage was set for a major move down in the stock
market. At this time, I knew that I had truly discovered
a powerful combination that no one else is using.
My cycles work confirmed the Bearish signal given
by Dow Theory. I then sent this study to Technical
Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine and it
was published in the November 2001 issue. An extremely
short summary of this research suggested that the
current 4-year cycle would move down below the 1998
4-year cycle low close at 7,615 on the Dow and 969
on the S&P 500. This has already happened on the
S&P and I feel the Dow will soon follow. In short,
I called for the 2002 decline, over a year in advance,
using my Cyclical methods combined with Dow Theory.
If you would like a reprint of my November 2001 article
from Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities
Magazine, please e-mail me your request.
I applied my Cycles theories to the Dollar, Gold and
Bonds. This was an attempt to use inter-market analysis
to further confirm the economic outlook. My theory
was that if the stock market was to be going down,
these other segments of the economy should confirm
this from a cyclical perspective. I found that the
Dollar was topping out and should start to decline
into it's 4-year cycle low. I found that Gold was
forming a major bottom, the 9-year cycle bottom, and
was to be moving up. Thus far, the Cyclical outlook
for the Dow was confirmed by the cyclical outlook
of the Dollar. The Cyclical outlook of the Dollar
was confirmed by that of Gold. Bonds are now setting
up for a move into their 3-year cycle low. So, I think
Bonds are also confirming the other Cyclical setups.
This research was published by Traders World, Spring
2002. See http://www.tradersworld.com/
October 2002 I published my long-term view of the
bear market. This appeared in the October 2002 issue
of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.
In this article, I explain my long-term findings on
the relationship between bull and bear markets. You
can also see in this article how Dow theory and Cycle
theory serve to complement each other. It is this
article that suggests the bear market will last to
at least 2006 and likely 2010. This article also explains
how the rally out of the 2002 4-year cycle low is
a secondary reaction that should prove to separate
phase I of the bear market from phase II. If you would
like a copy of this article please make your request
current research is available monthly in Cycles News
& Views. With a subscription to Cycles News &
Views also comes access to my shorter-term market
commentary and proprietary turn indicators. This newsletter
service is a very in-depth service and is not your
average 3 or 4 page newsletter. Cycles News &
Views provides comprehensive research based on Dow
theory and trend quantifications, known as cycles.
My outlook for 2006 is available in the January issue
To e-mail Tim Wood click
the mailing address is:
Gulf Shores Parkway, PMB # 251
Shores, AL 36542
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News & Views is a monthly newsletter. It covers
the Stock Market, Gold, T-bonds and the U.S. Dollar.
purpose of my newsletter is to help the investor time
intermediate and long term cycle changes.
now and get 12 monthly issues with web-based updates
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YOU READY FOR PHASE II ?