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Saturday, July 15th

Show Highlights:

  • Tim Wood discusses the 4 year stock market cycle. Stocks have been struggling and Tim thinks that the 4 year cycle will provide a great buying opportunity by this fall. Tim shares his thoughts on precious metals as well as equities and tells us where he thinks they are headed.
  • Bob Chapman shares his views on the gold and silver markets and tells why he believes gold will climb above $1,500. Plus Jack Chan takes a technical look at the charts.
  • In the first half of todays show we discuss a great article sent over by Peter from GoldSeek.com, regarding confiscation and exchange traded funds. We take a closer look at the new gold and silver ETF's to determine if they are the safe alternatives to gold and silver ownership that many believe them to be. You might be surprised at what we uncover. Next we look into the Federal Reserves latest money supply figures to determine just what is really going on behind all of the smoke and mirrors.

Real Audio

Broadband: Part I - Stream | Part II - Stream

Dial-Up: Part I - Stream | Part II - Stream

MP3

Part I - Stream | Part II - Stream

My Purpose

The purpose of this site is to provide investors with a place where they can obtain truthful, non biased, factual information about the financial markets. My primary focus is on the stock market, specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, the Gold market, the Dollar and T-Bonds. The information presented in this site is based on technical analysis. It is not based on the Hope and Hype heard by the so-called mainstream "analysts."

My Record

In the Summer of 2001 I did a research paper that suggested with almost certainty we were about to see a major decline take place in the stock market. Based on history, my study suggested a 100% probability of a move below the 1998 4-year cycle lows. This has recently happened in the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Utility Average, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, the New York Composite Index, the Russell 1000 and the Wilshire 5000. In my research paper I said that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would close below 7,400 in the Fall of 2002. This documentation was published in the November 2001 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine. If you would like a copy of this article, please make an e-mail request.

In July 2001 I said the Dow Jones Industrial Average would close below 7,400 in the Fall of 2002. Again, This was published in the November 2001 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.

In both my April and May 2002 newsletters I warned that we had a 97% probability, based on history, that the stock market was about to move below the September 2001 lows. This forecast has obviously proved to be correct.


In the May 2002 newsletter I warned that I felt the seasonal cycle in the U.S. Dollar had occurred as well as the 4-year cycle top. I further warned that based on my studies of cycles we had a 100% probability of a move below 111 in the U.S. Dollar. This has recently happened.


In the June 2002 newsletter I stated, "we are about to see the bear market accelerate." This obviously happened as well.

In the July 2002 newsletter I said "If you are still long stocks I would GET OUT." This was a timely call as well.


In the October 2002 newsletter I said "Expect the Bear to get Nasty again as the Dow moves into the 4-year cycle low, due between November 15, 2002 and January 17, 2003. This low should take the Dow below 7,400 and most likely into the mid 6000 range!"

We got the close below 7,400. October 2002 did mark the 4-year cycle bottom, but the mid 6000 range was not seen. Because of the lack of technical confirmation surrounding the October 2002 low, there had been some question as to whether this really was the 4-year cycle low. I said back in October 2002 that if this low did mark the 4-year cycle low, it was the weakest 4-year cycle low on record. I say this because we did not get the deeply oversold readings that are normally seen at such important lows. Without these deeply oversold readings to provide the foundation for the 2003 rally, it makes the sustainability of the rally questionable.

I have to ask: Do you know anyone else who had documented forecasts one year in advance, warning about the sell-off in the equity markets in 2002? Did your broker or money manager ever once tell you this was going to happen? Did the "analysts" on CNBC warn you? What about the "experts" on Fox or CNN? I can assure you they did not see this coming. They do not know where we are going from here and if they did, they would not tell you!

My Long Term Forecast

Because of record bullishness and manipulative efforts to keep air in the bubble, the current 4-year cycle has stretched, but should top with the current advance in early 2006. Once this top is made, I then look for the decline into the next 4-year cycle low to be underway. When this decline begins, it should mark the beginning of the Phase II decline of this great bear market. I am using the same statistical methods to project the coming 4-year cycle low as I did the 2002 low. Should this statistical forecast unfold as accurately as it did then, then most are assuredly going to be surprised to say the least.

My long term forecast suggests that the Dow should approach its final bear market lows as the 4-year cycle bottoms near 2010.

My Methods

My technical studies are based on my knowledge of both Market Cycles and Dow Theory. My knowledge of cycles is based on the methods I learned from Walter Bressert. My knowledge of Dow Theory has come from my studies of the original works of Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton, Robert Rhea, E. George Schaefer, Sparta Fritz Jr, A.M. Shumate, Charles B. Stansbury and Richard Russell. If you are familiar with these names you should realize that I believe in the old traditional methods of market analysis. It is obvious to me that these are the best tools available to market students today. Yet, I find that these tools are overlooked and/or forgotten today when they are most needed.

I have found that when combining my methods of Market Cycle analysis with Dow Theory, the results are astounding. To give an example of this powerful combination, back in July 1999 the Dow Jones Industrial Average made new highs, but they were not confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. This was the 1st Dow Theory warning. In August 1999 the DJIA moved higher into the next trading cycle top, but still not being confirmed by the DJTA. This was the second warning. In September of 1999 the DJIA moved below the previous trading cycle low (August 1999) thus confirming the down side action of the DJTA. This was the third Dow Theory warning. In January 2000 the DJIA pushes even higher into the weekly cycle top while the DJTA fades. My methods of Market Cycle analysis then confirmed the primary bear market signal given by Dow Theory in February 2000 as the DJIA broke down below the October 1999 seasonal cycle low.

In June of 2001 I did a long term study of the Dow going back to 1896. This study was an analysis of the 4-year cycle. As a result of this study I found that based on the historical characteristics of the 4-year cycle, the stage was set for a major move down in the stock market. At this time, I knew that I had truly discovered a powerful combination that no one else is using. My cycles work confirmed the Bearish signal given by Dow Theory. I then sent this study to Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine and it was published in the November 2001 issue. An extremely short summary of this research suggested that the current 4-year cycle would move down below the 1998 4-year cycle low close at 7,615 on the Dow and 969 on the S&P 500. This has already happened on the S&P and I feel the Dow will soon follow. In short, I called for the 2002 decline, over a year in advance, using my Cyclical methods combined with Dow Theory. If you would like a reprint of my November 2001 article from Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, please e-mail me your request.

Next, I applied my Cycles theories to the Dollar, Gold and Bonds. This was an attempt to use inter-market analysis to further confirm the economic outlook. My theory was that if the stock market was to be going down, these other segments of the economy should confirm this from a cyclical perspective. I found that the Dollar was topping out and should start to decline into it's 4-year cycle low. I found that Gold was forming a major bottom, the 9-year cycle bottom, and was to be moving up. Thus far, the Cyclical outlook for the Dow was confirmed by the cyclical outlook of the Dollar. The Cyclical outlook of the Dollar was confirmed by that of Gold. Bonds are now setting up for a move into their 3-year cycle low. So, I think Bonds are also confirming the other Cyclical setups. This research was published by Traders World, Spring 2002. See http://www.tradersworld.com/

In October 2002 I published my long-term view of the bear market. This appeared in the October 2002 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine. In this article, I explain my long-term findings on the relationship between bull and bear markets. You can also see in this article how Dow theory and Cycle theory serve to complement each other. It is this article that suggests the bear market will last to at least 2006 and likely 2010. This article also explains how the rally out of the 2002 4-year cycle low is a secondary reaction that should prove to separate phase I of the bear market from phase II. If you would like a copy of this article please make your request through e-mail.

More current research is available monthly in Cycles News & Views. With a subscription to Cycles News & Views also comes access to my shorter-term market commentary and proprietary turn indicators. This newsletter service is a very in-depth service and is not your average 3 or 4 page newsletter. Cycles News & Views provides comprehensive research based on Dow theory and trend quantifications, known as cycles. My outlook for 2006 is available in the January issue to subscribers.

Contact Information


To e-mail Tim Wood click here
or the mailing address is:

Tim Wood

1545 Gulf Shores Parkway, PMB # 251

Gulf Shores, AL 36542

251-955-2327

Please include your e-mail address with all payments.

Subscription Information

Cycles News & Views is a monthly newsletter. It covers the Stock Market, Gold, T-bonds and the U.S. Dollar.

The purpose of my newsletter is to help the investor time intermediate and long term cycle changes.

Subscribe now and get 12 monthly issues with web-based updates 3 nights a week. You will also have access to the Original Gold Reports and The Bear Market Report. All for $250.00 per year.


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Part II

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Archived Shows:

Doug Casey & The Gold Wizards - July 8, 2006

Pamela Aden, David Garofalo & The Gold Wizards - July 1, 2006

James Turk, Bob Moriarty & The Gold Wizards - June 24, 2006

The Mogambo Guru, Dr. Roger Tutterow & George-Whitehurst-Berry - June 17, 2006

G. Edward Griffin, Kal Gronvall, Gary Kaltbaum, Bob Chapman and Jack Chan - June 10, 2006

Richard Russell, Ron Brown & Trading Wizards - June 03, 2006

Jason Hommel, Gary Stroik, Bob Chapman, Gary Kaltbaum & Jack Chan - May 27, 2006

Tom Udall, Gary Stroik, Bob Chapman, Gary Kaltbaum & Jack Chan - May 20, 2006

Bill Murphy & Michael Covel - May 13, 2006

Jim Sinclair - May 06, 2006

Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - April 28, 2006

Catherine Austin Fitts - April 22, 2006

Mark Leibovit - April 15, 2006

Addison Wiggin - April 8, 2006

Dr. Ron Paul - April 1, 2006

Bob Chapman - March 25, 2006

Dr. Marc Faber - March 18, 2006

John Rubion & David Coffin - March 11, 2006

Julian Phillips & Gary Kaltbaum - March 4, 2006

Steve Forbes & Dr. Van K. Tharp - February 25, 2006

Bob Chapman & Jack Chan - February 18, 2006

Jim Willie, Roland Watson & David Morgan - February 11, 2006

David Morgan

Jim Rogers

James Turk

Dr. Marc Faber

Bill Murphy

 

 

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